PGA Betting – The Heritage Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: We were close but no cigar again at the Valero Texas Open. Martin Laird finished ninth after he could only get one round into the 60s. We’re not missing by a mile, so we should hit on a pick soon if we stay the course.
THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: April 21 – 24
Event: The Heritage
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina
Purse: $5,700,000
Defending Champ: Jim Furyk
Winning Share: $1,026,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
The Heritage, played at Harbour Town Golf Links, isn’t one of the Tour’s most intimidating stops. Its greens are hard to hit but players aren’t punished if they miss, as the course was among the Tour’s easiest in scrambling and putting last year. So we should expect players to go double-digits under par, as Jim Furyk did en route to victory last season.
THE ELITE
Luke Donald
Heritage odds: +815
You could almost make a case for better odds than +815 in Donald’s case. He’s having a great season, with four straight top-10 finishes. He leads the Tour in adjusted scoring average and putting. But he even has the track record at the Heritage going for him, placing in the top three two years running. Very tempting even at the low value.
Matt Kuchar
Heritage odds: +1015
Kuchar has been good pretty much all season, with six top-10s in nine starts on the year, but he just can’t get over the hump. He’s made six straight cuts at Harbour Town but hasn’t been dominant. His breakthrough week in 2011 is coming but I’m not sure it’s this week.
Jim Furyk
Heritage odds: +1415
Furyk’s win last year wasn’t a fluke; he’s also been the runner up twice and finished fourth at the Heritage. Though he’s heating up, with three straight top-25s, he hasn’t really come close to winning this season. I think 2011 is his back-to-Earth season.
THE CONTENDERS
Rickie Fowler
Heritage odds: +1850
Do you believe in the young gun? He was eighth at last year’s Heritage and really sizzled on the final day, birdying seven holes. Still, he has only two top-10s all season. I call him overrated until he proves otherwise. 
Aaron Baddeley
Heritage odds: +2050
Baddeley won the Heritage in 2006 and has never finished worse than 25th there. The solid ball striker also has a win on Tour already this season. He’s a reasonable play if you want to try a former winner but one who offers better value than Furyk.
SOLID PICKS
Brian Gay
Heritage odds: +3550
If it isn’t Donald this week, Brian Gay looks awfully good. He crushed everyone to win by nine strokes in 2009, shooting 67 or better in every round. Gay also leads the 2011 Tour in fairways, scrambling and sand saves. The only strike on him is that he doesn’t enter this week hot; Gay has one top-20 in his last six starts.
Brandt Snedeker
Heritage odds: +3550
Snedeker only works as pick if you don’t believe in past history at a host course, as he hasn’t fared well at the Heritage (to put it lightly). But he’s second on Tour in putting and he’s fresh off his fourth top-10 finish this season. You could do worse.
THE SLEEPER
Ricky Barnes
Heritage odds: +5050
Barnes was fifth at Harbour Town in 2010 and flashed great all-around play, cracking the top 10 in putting and birdies. He isn’t on top of his game now, however; he’s broken 70 just once in his last 12 rounds.
THE PICK
I see this week as a two-horse race between Donald and Gay. Both have outstanding peripherals for the tournament. Even though he offers considerably less value, I’ll go with Donald, as he’s having the better season than Gay on top of the good history at Harbour Town.
Heritage prediction: Luke Donald +815
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2011 Heritage Tournament – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Kevin Na 60-1
Lucas Glover 50-1
Luke Donald 10-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Mark Wilson 60-1
Matt Kuchar 15-1
Pat Perez 60-1
Peter Hanson 80-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Ricky Barnes 50-1
Scott Verplank 50-1
Sean OHair 80-1
Spencer Levin 50-1
Stephen Ames 80-1
Steve Marino 40-1
Stewart Cink 30-1
Stuart Appleby 80-1
Trevor Immelman 50-1
Webb Simpson 50-1
Zach Johnson 40-1
zx Field (Any Other Golfers) 3-1
Brian Gay 30-1
Camilo Villegas 80-1
Carl Pettersson 80-1
Chad Campbell 60-1
Charles Howell III 40-1
Chris Couch 60-1
Davis Love III 80-1
Ernie Els 40-1
Francesco Molinari 30-1
Fredrik Jacobson 40-1
Graeme McDowell 25-1
Heath Slocum 80-1
Henrik Stenson 125-1
Ian Poulter 30-1
Jason Day 30-1
Jerry Kelly 80-1
Jim Furyk 15-1
John Daly 250-1
Jonathan Byrd 50-1
Justin Leonard 80-1
Aaron Baddeley 20-1
Ben Crane 40-1
Bill Haas 50-1
Bo Van Pelt 30-1
Boo Weekley 60-1
Brandt Snedeker 30-1
Brendan Steele 100-1
Brendon de Jonge 50-1
Brian Davis 60-1
