PGA Betting – AT&T National Championship Preview & Pick
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This week’s AT&T National features one of the more interesting fields I’ve seen in a while. Normally, when Tiger plays, it’s a major championship or at least a star-studded event like the Players or Memorial. This week, he’ll compete against a somewhat watered-down group.
With just two of the World’s top 10 ranked golfers competing.
But will the tight course layout, which requires good scrambling and iron play, hurt Tiger?
Date: Thursday July 1 – Sunday July 4
Event: AT&T National Championship
Course: Aronimink Golf Club, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania
Purse: $6,200,000
Defending Champ: Tiger Woods
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
Let’s break down the field and make a pick.
THE TIGER CATEGORY
Tiger Woods
AT&T National odds: +345
The oddsmakers just won’t give up. They keep putting Tiger’s odds way head of the field even though he’s winless this season and the AT&T course set up doesn’t seem to favor him. Though keeping his driver in the bag means the field will catch up to him, maybe Tiger is better off using his irons anyway? If he putts well this week, he’ll have a chance. But why throw down on the defending champ with such a small potential return on investment?
THE ELITE
Jim Furyk
AT&T National odds: +1215
Furyk’s game couldn’t be better suited to this week’s tourney. He’s a master scrambler (10th on Tour) and he’s accurate (seventh in driving accuracy). He also has two wins this season and consecutive top-20 finishes at the Memorial and U.S. Open. A victory this week should surprise no one.
THE CONTENDERS
Sean O’Hair
AT&T National odds: +2550
O’Hair will get consideration as the hometown hero this week but that advantage didn’t help him last year, when he finished 35th at this tournament. It’s hard to justify wagering on a guy with one top-10 finish all season. 
Justin Rose
AT&T National odds: +3050
It’s been a memorable season for Justin Rose – for reasons good and bad. He won the Memorial Tournament and seemed poised for a second straight victory but collapsed on Sunday last week at the Travelers Championship, posting a 75 on Sunday after three straight rounds in the 60s. If he can shake the agony of that defeat, he makes for a solid bet. Rose is 10th on Tour in sand save percentage and 22nd in driving accuracy.
SOLID PICKS
Scott Verplank
AT&T National odds: +4050
Missed it by…that much. Our pick to win last week, Scott Verplank, lost in a playoff at the Travelers. That finish marked his third top-five in his last four starts. The man is dialed in. He also ranks 12th in fairways hit and fourth in putting, suggesting his success is sustainable.
Ricky Barnes
AT&T National odds: +4550
Barnes offers a pretty strong return at +4550 but hardly qualifies as a Hail Mary pick despite his value. He’s tied for first on Tour with six top-10 finishes this season and finished fifth at the Travelers last week. He’s underwhelming but solid in several key peripheral categories this week: greens hit (45th), scrambling (25th) and scoring average (21st).
THE SLEEPER
Fredrik Jacobson
AT&T National odds: +5050
Jacobson deserves consideration as a sleeper because he’s known for his strong iron play. He also has a nice touch around the green, even if he gets into trouble, as he’s third on Tour in scrambling. Those skills could come in very handy this week.
THE PICK
Some bettors feel it’s only a matter of time before Tiger busts out. Others will ride the Verplank wave. While I can’t fault anyone for doing so – or even betting on the solid Rick Barnes – the setup overwhelmingly favors Furyk’s game. All aboard the Waggle Train.
Pick: Jim Furyk +1215
