NHL Free Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres
Hockey betting fans sure are getting their money’s worth from the free nhl picks we give out here at Capperspicks.com.
Team records:
Toronto: 15-20-9
Buffalo: 27-11-4
Tonight, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook odds: Leafs +170, Sabres -205
The Leafs have sorta, kinda been competitive over the last couple of months – definitely better than they played at the start of the season. But they’re still anything but a strong bet these days; they’ve allowed the most goals in the NHL, they have the league’s worst penalty kill and they’ve lost nine straight to the team they face tonight: the Buffalo Sabres.
Buffalo’s quick forwards routinely skate circles around the bigger, slower Leaf blueliners like Mike Komisarek and Luke Schenn. Stud rookie defender Tyler Myers, along with Boston’s Zdeno Chara, played a major role in kick-starting Phil Kessel’s slump. 
Myers has bullied and swallowed up the diminutive Leaf sniper all season, showing teams around the league that they can stop Kessel by keying on him with a physical defender.
Then there’s Ryan Miller. The Vezina Trophy frontrunner has an amazing 21-7-0 career record in 28 matchups against Toronto with a 2.20 goals against average, .929 save percentage and four shutouts. He absolutely owns the Leafs. Toronto will probably counter with Vesa Toskala since Jonas Gustavsson got shelled on Wednesday night and will be needed tomorrow against Pittsburgh.
Toskala has a 1.99 career GAA against the Sabres but appears mentally broken in the midst of a battle for playing time and got pulled the last time he faced Buffalo.
Don’t commit betting suicide tonight. Avoid the Leafs at all costs.
NHL Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto’s last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto’s last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto’s last 13 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games when playing Toronto
Pick: Sabres -205
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Shea Matthews lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national newspapers. He now applies his knowledge to sports betting and handicapping every day, and shares his winning picks with the world.
