NFL Week 6 Expert Picks – Houston vs. Cincinnati
Can Cincinnati Bengals Hold Off Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson?
I still can’t get my head around the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals are leading the AFC North right now. The Bengals! Thanks to some miracle work on Carson Palmer’s part (and some mistimed penalties on the Ravens’ part), the Bengals used the fourth quarter to mount another improbable comeback. They’ve beaten every team in their division already, and have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 at home. For a team that has been in utter turmoil for countless seasons, it’s a very sudden change.
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The Bengals are exactly the team I thought that the Houston Texans would be when I made my Wildcard predictions during preseason. But the Texans defense continues to be abysmal, dragging Houston’s betting value in to the dirt. Matt Schaub is leading the passing game with 273.6 yards per game, but the defense is getting mauled like Jon and Kate’s bank account. The Texans are giving up yards everywhere, even on special teams, and they’re getting embarrassed by allowing 24.0 points per game.
The oddsmakers remain a tad bit nervous about Matt Schaub’s ability to open up the aerial attack, which is why this spread remains under a touchdown. It also doesn’t help that the point differential for the Bengals is just +2.2. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Houston Texans (2-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday, October 18th — 1:00pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Cincinnati -5 (46)
The Bengals’ home defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing 249.0 yards through the air. That’s dangerous territory for a team that will try and stave off one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Fortunately, they have Cedric Benson and Palmer pushing their offense down the field. Whatever the Texans can mount on offense, I think the Bengals can do better.
Cincinnati also plays with a chip on their shoulder, something that the Texans haven’t done all season. They’ve already proven to their division that they are the team to beat in the first half of the season. They’ll prove to the rest of the AFC what this defense is capable of by forcing Schaub to chase points all day, leading to mistakes and turnovers that will push the OVER and preserve the spread for the home team.
Free Pick: Cincinnati -5 (OVER)
