NFL Betting Picks – Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers
Miami Dolphins (0-2 SU & ATS) at San Diego Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Sunday, September 27 – 4:15 PM ET
BetUS NFL betting odds: SAN DIEGO -6, Total 44
In the BetUS Sportsbook, the Chargers are listed as a six-point favorite, with a posted total of 44 points.
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Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
MIA has covered three of its last 11 games
MIA has won nine of its last 13 games SU
MIA has played ten of its last 13 games UNDER the total
MIA has covered six of its last eight road games
MIA has won five of its last six road games SU
MIA has lost 13 of its last 19 road games SU
MIA has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
SD has won six of its last eight games SU
SD has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
SD has covered 12 of its last 17 home games
SD has won 13 of its last 17 home games SU
Also…
MIA has won the last seven meetings SU
MIA has covered the last five meetings
The last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
MIA has covered the last five meetings as the road team
The last five meetings in San Diego have gone UNDER the total
They’re shaking their heads about the Dolphins this week, after the team generated 239 rushing yards and held the ball for 45 minutes against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, yet allowed Peyton Manning to beat them 27-23. How much better can Miami possibly run the Wildcat? How much better can they block? How much help are they going to need in the secondary?
Well, that is a work in progress because Miami is using Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, both rookies, in the secondary at one corner position, and plenty of people ought to be asking questions about Gibril Wilson, the safety who has been passed around a little over the last couple of years and was victimized by Dallas Clark on the Colts’ first play from scrimmage. That kind of play in the secondary is a potentially glaring weakness, and something that could be exploited again, this time by Phillip Rivers of the Chargers.
San Diego has weaknesses, without question. Some of them are the result of injuries to people like offensive linemen Lous Vasquez and Nick Hardwick, not to mention running back LaDanian Tomlinson. They look like they have replaced the linemen competently, and while gaping holes have not opened up for the rushing attack, Rivers has figured out a way to get the ball into the hands of Tomlinson’s backup, Darren Sproles, who has 167 receiving yards already.
The thing about Miami is, while it is good news that the offensive line is blocking well enough for them to execute their Wildcat package to a scary level of efficiency against Indy, this team is absent the big-play element (Chad Pennington has 5.8 yards an attempt), and that will allow the San Diego defense to make appropriate adjustments, without having to blitz.
Don’t confuse the Dolphins’ defense with what faced off against the Chargers last week, at least until they are able to demonstrate some significant pressure on the passer. Aside from the West Coast travel after a Monday night game, this is a bad matchup for Miami. We’re going to lay the points with San Diego, the six-point favorite in the BetUS NFL pro football betting odds.
OUR PLAY: SAN DIEGO -6 ***
