NFL Betting – Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (@ Toronto)
The Miami Dolphins (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) are surprising everyone by staying in the AFC East title race. On Sunday they try to take an other positive step to remain in the thick of things when they take on the fading Buffalo Bills (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) in NFL pro football sports betting action that is set to get underway at 4:05 PM ET at the Rogers Centre (artificial turf) in Toronto.
BetUS NFL betting odds: BUFFALO -1, Total 42.5
NOTABLE STAT: Buffalo has scored a TD only 46.3% of the time in the red zone
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Bills are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Bills are listed as a one-point favorite, with a posted total of 42.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* MIA has covered one of its last five games
* MIA has won five of its last six games SU
* MIA has lost 17 of its last 25 games SU
* MIA has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* MIA has covered four of its last six road games
* MIA has lost 12 of its last 15 road games SU
* BUFF has lost five of its last six games SU
* BUFF has covered one of its last six games
* BUFF has covered one of its last five home games
* BUFF has played seven of its last ten home games OVER the total
Also…
* BUFF has covered eight of the last nine meetings
* BUFF has won four of the last five meetings SU
* Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
* BUFF has won and covered five of the last six meetings as the home team
These teams are going in somewhat opposite directions. After four games of the season, the Bills looked like the team that might take command of this division, as they were undefeated, with wins over two playoff teams from last season (Seattle and Jacksonville). But the Bills have won just twice since, while Miami has come on like a house afire, with five wins in its last six games.
Of course, the turning point in the Dolphins’ season is considered to be the road game at Foxboro, where coach Tony Sporano’s staff broke out the “Wildcat” offense and surprised the hell out of Bill Belichick in the 38-13 win. Miami has gone about proving that was no fluke, and could find itself playing the Jets in the season’s final game with the division title on the line. A lot of people have talked about some of the great quarterbacking in the AFC, but Chad Pennington has really managed to hold the fort down for the ‘Fins, posting his usually high percentage rate (65% completions) while tossing just six interceptions. But it’s been a combination of the Dolphins doing a lot of little things well.
As for the Bills, inconsistency has been the key. Buffalo rang up 54 points against Kansas City two weeks ago, but let the Chiefs rumble for 31 points and 462 yards themselves. Last week, however, Buffalo was only able to squeeze a field goal out of its efforts in losing a decision to San Francisco at Orchard Park, but stymied the Niners offense, allowing only 195 yards. J.P. Losman could get the call at quarterback here – he’s been a solid 26 for 38 thus far. but this team can not seem to perform in the red zone against anyone other than Kansas City, and offensive coordinator Turk Schonert has taken a lot of the abuse for that.
Of course, the Bills’ woes in the red zone, which extend back to last season, were the rationale for drafting James Hardy, but he’s been a bust even when healthy, with just nine catches. Indeed, Buffalo has converted only 46.3% of its red zone opportunities into touchdowns, which means TDs that turn into field goals, except they missed a couple last week that could have helped make the difference in their defeat. Since Miami is not above winning ugly (witness last week’s victory at St. Louis), we’re going to look UNDER the 42.5 points as it is posted in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
