Dolphins vs Falcons: Can Miami Pull an Upset
BetUS NFL betting odds: FALCONS -4, Total 43.5
In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Falcons are listed as a four-point favorite, with a posted total of 43.5 points.
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Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
MIA has covered three of its last nine gamesMIA has won five of its last six games SU
MIA has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
MIA has covered six of its last seven road games
MIA has won its last five road games SU
MIA has lost 12 of its last 18 road games SU
MIA has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total 
ATL has covered one of its last five games
ATL has won five of its last seven games SU
ATL has covered six of its last nine home games
ATL has won eight of its last nine home games SU
ATL has has played nine of its last 12 home games OVER the total
Also…
ATL is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings
Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
Both of these teams made remarkable turnarounds last season. The Dolphins won just one game in 2007, then took on Bill Parcells as the chief football executive and Tony Sparano as head coach and drove to the AFC East division title, developing the “Wildcat” variation in their offense along the way. The Falcons rose out of the ashes of Bobby Petrino’s disastrous reign as head coach as well as the arrest and conviction of Michael Vick to reach the NFC playoffs and defy NFL betting experts. The questions surrounding each of the clubs is what they can do for an encore.
The Dolphins have a much tougher schedule this year than last, when they won nine of their last ten games to beat out the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots. But this was a team that showed an unusual level of poise, turning the ball over less than anyone, winning six games by seven points or less, and covering seven of the last eight as an underdog in NFL betting. That seems to be the position they feel more comfortable in.
Atlanta has bolstered its offense this year with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, the Hall of Fame-level tight end who will be a great outlet for Matt Ryan when he can’t throw the ball downfield. Michael Turner is a tremendous running back, who would be the best in the NFC if not for the presence of Adrian Peterson. Roddy White is a Pro Bowl wide receiver, with a nice complement in Michael Jenkins. However, Harry Douglas, who was expected to have a breakout season, is out for the year,
Some NFL betting experts were surprised that Atlanta’s defense stood relatively pat, though they spent their first five draft pick on defensive players. Miami probably made more moves to improve, and with the addition of Jason Taylor and CFL standout Cameron Wake to join Joey Porter they could get a lot of pressure on Ryan. There’s plenty of new help in the secondary too, with safety Gibril Wilson and rookies Vontae Davis and Sean Smith adding some fresh blood.
In this atmosphere you can’t under-estimate the value of an accurate, steady quarterback like Chad Pennington, even if he doesn’t stretch the field all that much. And look out for whatever rookie Pat White can contribute in the Wildcat mode. We’re on the “take” with Miami, the four-point underdog in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
OUR PLAY: MIAMI +4 ***
