Venue/ Stadium: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA
The Bucs and 49ers are 3-1 and lead their divisions, which is a surprise so far on the young season.
Time/Date: 4:05 PM EST Sunday, October 9, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 / San Francisco -140
Spread (ATS): 49ers -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Preview
The 49ers came back from a big deficit to beat the Eagles last week and if they can win this home game they will be in good shape in the NFC West since the Seahawks and Cardinals are 1-3 and the Rams are 0-4. NFL lines have the 49ers as slight 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 41.5.
Last Sunday the 49ers beat the Eagles in the City of Brotherly Love 24-23 and the Bucs beat the Indianapolis Colts 24-17 at home on Monday night.
Tampa Bay has to play a better game this Sunday than they did against the Colts, as even though they won they gave up 2 big TD plays going 87 and 59 yards and they were also penalized 14 times for 106 yards.
Alex Smith leads the 49ers and their passing offense and even though they only rank 29th in the league in passing yards per game the former #1 pick had 291 yards with 2 TD and 0 picks in the win over Philadelphia. He has been managing games well and only has one INT on the season. TE Vernon Davis and the WR duo of Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan are his main targets and they will be going up against a Bucs’ pass defense that only ranks 21st in the league and did not look good on Monday night. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
After struggling to begin the season San Fran RB Frank Gore rushed for 127 yards against the Eagles. He is key in this game and if the Bucs and their 11th ranked run defense can contain him they have a great chance to win. In an interesting stat the 49ers are 11-4 since 2007 when Gore breaks the 100-yard barrier. Last season the Bucs head Gore to only 23 rushing yards on 12 carries in a 21-0 loss at Tampa Bay.
Bucs’ QB Josh Freeman is turning into a solid QB and he has a couple of solid targets in TE Kellen Winslow and WR Preston Parker have combined for 33 receptions. The 49ers pass defense only ranks 27th in the league and they really have to play well in the clutch in the stretch since Freeman is a great QB in the 4th quarter.
Betting Trends
On the season the Bucs are 2-2 ATS and the 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS and each NFL team has an O/U record of 3-1.
The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games on the road.
The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games facing a team with a winning record, is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games, and in their last 4 home games the posted total has gone Over every time.
Jason’s Pick: I like the Bucs this season, but I like the 49ers more, especially at home. Smith and Gore will play well, as will the San Fran D, which is why the 49ers will win and cover the 2.5-point spread.
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