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Week 13 NFL Betting: 5 Games’ Football Odds You Have To Bet On

NFL Week 13 “Insider Betting”

Week 13 of the NFL season is upon us. Thanksgiving week in America treated us to a day full of football on Thursday and if you were lucky (smart) enough to take the Lions, Eagles and Seahawks on Thursday you’re already feeling pretty thankful.

Sunday’s schedule is a little lighter this week due to the three mid-week games, but there’s still a handful of match ups that are tempting to get in on. The NFL schedule makers definitely wanted to boost ratings with three divisional rivalry games on Thursday, leaving most of the Sunday games with low implications and not a lot of immediate appeal.

I won’t bore you with too much preamble so let’s just get right into the games that have my attention this week.

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San Diego vs Baltimore

Week 13 NFL Odds Ravens -6.5

This is one of the few games on Sunday that comes with big implications for both teams. The Chargers and Ravens sit with identical 7-4 records, but this one might hold a bit more desperation on the Chargers’ side of the coin.

Baltimore doesn’t want to lose obviously, but it wouldn’t be as much of a setback as they would still find themselves in a tight race for the AFC North division title. For the Chargers, a loss would all but end their playoff hopes as they trail both Denver and Kansas City, who play each other this week (meaning one will win and San Diego won’t be gaining ground in the division).

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San Diego raced out of the gate and looked to be a contender for the division before stubbing their toe and falling out of contention. They’ve put together back to back wins their last two weeks, albeit in less than stellar fashion (13-6 over Oakland and 27-24 over St. Louis).

The Ravens are also riding a two game win streak and have been quietly plugging along in the AFC North. This team is overlooked right now due to a lack of statement wins (early season victories over Pittsburgh and Cleveland are their only wins against teams with records above .500).

Week 13 NFL Pick: This is the first legitimate test for either team in three weeks, so I expect a hard fought, tight game. Baltimore has played well at home with a 4-1 record but I expect San Diego to keep this one close. Go with the Chargers.

Washington vs Indianapolis

Week 13 NFL Odds Colts -9.5

The offensive juggernaut that is the Indianapolis Colts has been running out of steam a little bit in the past two weeks, but that hasn’t stopped odds makers from spotting them a nearly 10 point spread in this one.

The Skins have hit a snag themselves; after going into Dallas and beating the Cowboys, Washington has dropped their last three games and in their last two the offense has been terrible, managing just seven points at home against the Bucs before putting up just 13 against the 49ers.

Despite the lack of point production from the offense, I’m having a bit of a hard time getting behind the Colts right now who managed just three points in the first half last week against the Jaguars. Washington has a pretty decent pass rush and Andrew Luck isn’t going to have a cake walk.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Indy is clearly the better team in this one but I think that spread is just a bit too big for a team that hasn’t exactly wowed me in the last few weeks as far as offense is concerned. The Colts should win this but look for it to be close, along the lines of 23 – 17. Take Washington.

Cleveland vs Buffalo

Week 13 NFL Odds Bills -3

The Cleveland Browns are 7-4 and have a chance to sneak into the post season for the first time in…(Google that, I guess). It’s a nice story and everything, but take a glance at the Browns’ schedule and you can see right away that they’ve taken advantage of what is probably the weakest schedule in the NFL.

Buffalo has played some good football this year and are 6-5 but I’m thrown by the fact that they’re only a .500 team at home at 3-3 (one of those “home” wins was last week where they played indoors in Detroit).

The Bills will return to Ralph Wilson Stadium this week and this should be enough motivation to get them a win and in convincing fashion. The Browns do have a propensity to play tight games that come down to the wire, but they also have a habit lately of when they lose, they lose really ugly (24-6 against Jacksonville, 23-7 to Houston).

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Week 13 NFL Pick: Cleveland has the better record here, but I think this is where the gravy train ends for them on this season. I won’t be shocked if Buffalo just stomps them into the ground and derails the Browns’ season. Take Buffalo in this game.

New Orleans vs Pittsburgh

Week 13 NFL Odds Steelers -4.5

This one almost looks like a steal to me to get the Steelers at only a 4.5 point favourite. Pittsburgh just watched their division rivals from Baltimore go into New Orleans and massacre the Saints. New Orleans dropped three straight games at home and a trip away from the Superdome may be what they need to get on track.

Unfortunately they have to go into Pittsburgh where the Steelers have lost just once this season. The Saints will be without key members of their secondary as Jairus Byrd and Rafael Bush are injured, so good luck stopping Antonio Brown and co. To compound those problems they have to deal with the league’s fourth leading rusher as far as yards in Le’Veon Bell.

Bell is a better running back than the Ravens’ Justin Forsett who destroyed the Saints for 182 yards on the ground and two TDs last week. This is going to be a long day for the Saints.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Silver lining, the Saints can lose and if the Falcons and Panthers both lose New Orleans will stay tied for first in the NFC South at 4-8, yuck.

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That being said I fully expect the Saints to lose this one and by a wide margin, go with Pittsburgh.

New England vs Green Bay

Week 13 NFL Odds Packers -3

Sorry, I had to do it, this is the game that all eyes will be on this week and I usually stay away from betting these games so it doesn’t sway my opinion of the game, but there’s bound to be people who want to bet this one.

The general rule of thumb when setting odds is that the home team is automatically spotted three points. That’s just what the Packers got in this one and nothing more. Green Bay’s home field advantage is only matched by that of the Pats. Sure, Denver, Philly and Arizona are all a perfect 6-0 at home right now, but there’s no stadiums in the NFL that are more imposing to go into as a visitor than Gillette Stadium in New England and Lambeau Field in Green Bay.

The Packers have been outstanding at home this season and have piled up over 50 points in each of their last two home games and QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 29 TDs without an interception at Lambeau.

New England meanwhile has been on a mission since getting embarrassed by the Chiefs and have run off seven straight wins, not looking even close to losing in any of those.

Week 13 NFL Pick

My gut is telling me to never doubt Tom Brady and the Pats, and if any corner duo can shut down the Packers’ pass attack it’s Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. I think this basically comes down to whether or not Rodgers can pick on those two and move the ball, because the Patriots will definitely have no trouble moving on the Packers. I’m leaning toward the Patriots in this one.

Check out our Updated NFL Week 11 Odds.

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By Matt Durnan

A (self-proclaimed) fantasy sports guru since 2004 and a journalist since 2007. He has been offering unsolicited sports gambling advice to his circle of friends for years and has now put himself at the mercy of online readers everywhere. "It's not whether you win or lose, it's how much fun you have"... His hockey coach told him that when he was 7. His team lost every game that year.