Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Packers vs. Lions Odds & Free NFL Prediction

Green Bay vs Detroit Betting on Thanksgiving?

First Place in NFC North on the Line – Lions Host Packers Thanksgiving Day

Kicking off a terrific slate of games on Thanksgiving Day is an intriguing tilt between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions – two teams that have a chance to seize control of the NFC North but at times seem like they don’t want it.

Green Bay (5-5-1) at Detroit (6-5)
When: 12:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 28, 2013
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Broadcast: FOX
Packers vs. Lions Betting Lines
Green Bay Packers +6 -110 +215 Ov 50 -105
Detroit Lions -6 -110 -255 Un 50 -115
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The Packers are coming off a 26-26 tie with the Minnesota Vikings while the Lions let one slip away against an equally poor combatant – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Packers will likely lean on Matt Flynn to get their first win since Week 8 while Detroit enters Thursday’s game remarkably healthy.

Not a whole lot has gone right for the Green Bay Packers during their current four game winless streak.

Without Aaron Rodgers, Scott Tolzein and Matt Flynn have been unflattering to say the least and the Pack’s defense has definitely not stepped up to help their banged up offense.

There is a chance that Aaron Rodgers returns this week but it is more likely that Matt Flynn gets the nod after 218 yards and a TD last week.

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Yes it is the same Matt Flynn that threw for six TDs against Detroit in 2011! Flynn (or Rodgers) has weapons and the Lions are regarded as one of the worst pass defenses in the game but it may come down to Eddie Lacy this week and he has been pretty good.

Lacy has recorded 22 or more carries in seven of the last eight games, averaging 94.4 rushing yards during that span. He has been the workhorse for Green Bay with Rodgers out, and he gained 158 yards on 31 touches against Minnesota. But the Lions defense has held five straight opponents under 100 yards rushing but has struggled against the pass.

With the Packers offense looking average the last month hopes were that the defense would step up for this team but it certainly hasn’t. They have surrendered 409.5 yards per game over the past four contests compared to 331.1 in the first seven. Disappointing – and now they have the chore of trying to slow down Matthew Stafford, Megatron and Reggie Bush.

The Detroit Lions are currently on a two game losing streak – they have committed eight turnovers in those games. The offense however has not missed a beat this whole season – the team is sixth in total yards (412.1) and third in passing (308.4). Reggie Bush has been good all season long and Calvin Johnson has anointed himself as the best receiver in the game – by a long shot!

Johnson has 861 receiving yards over the past five contests, the most in a five-game span in NFL history and has proven un-defensible. The Lions have done whatever they want offensively – the onus is on a defense that has certainly struggled again this year.

Betting Prediction:

A few trends to consider:

• GB are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. NFC North.
• Under is 6-2 in GB last 8 games overall.
• Under is 8-3 in GB last 11 vs. NFC North.
• DET are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Thu. games.
• DET are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC.
• Over is 17-8 in DET last 25 games in November.

Detroit has lost its Thanksgiving Day game the last nine years. It’s last win was a 22-14 triumph over Green Bay in 2003. This year it all depends on the availability of Aaron Rodgers. I am assuming he sits again this week. And because of that I can’t imagine the Packers being able to score enough to keep up with the Lions. Detroit has a ton to prove – don’t think they are not fired up to beat down their short-handed nemesis Thursday afternoon! I like the Lions to win big!

Pick: Detroit Lions -6

By DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.