Venue/ Stadium: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
The Saints are coming off a tough OT loss to division rival New Orleans while the Titans crushed Carolina in their last game.
Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Sunday, November 20, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Titans +215 / Falcons -255
Spread (ATS): Falcons -6
Over/Under: 44
Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview
Each team really needs a win this Sunday, as each is in 2nd place in their respective divisions. NFL lines have the Falcons as 6-point home favorites in this game with a total of 44.
This last Sunday Atlanta lost to the New Orleans Saints 26-23 in OT and Tennessee beat the Carolina Panthers 30-3.
The big match up in this game may be Titans’ RB Chris Johnson facing the Falcons’ run defense that ranks 4th in the league. Johnson finally had a solid game last week rushing for 140 games, but can he move the chains facing the Atlanta run defense that only gave up 41 yards to the Saints last week? Johnson needs to get the ball, as the Titans are 3-0 on the season when he has at least 15 carries.
Matt Hasselbeck does not have a great WR corps, but he has been playing well and may need to have a big game facing the Falcons 23rd ranked pass defense if Atlanta stuffs the run.
Even in the loss last week Atlanta QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner played well. The Titans totally contained Cam Newton last week and this week their 15th ranked pass defense must key on the WR duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones. The Titans do not have a great pass rush with 19 sacks and if Ryan is given time in the pocket he may have a big game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Turner has to help Ryan out and run the ball in this game and there is a good chance he will do that since the Tennessee run defense only ranks 22nd in the league. If you look at a couple of interesting stats the Falcons need a well balanced attack on offense to win, as the Falcons are only 3-11 in Ryan’s career when he has more than 40 passes in a game while they are 5-1 in their last 6 games when Turner gets at least 19 carries.
The Titans have won 5 straight games over Atlanta.
Betting Trends
Both of these teams are 4-5 ATS on the season and the Titans have an O/U record of 4-5 and the Falcons have an O/U record of 3-6.
The Titans are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points.
The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points and in their last 5 games overall the total has gone Under every time.
Jason’s Pick: Johnson did have a big game last week, but Atlanta is tough to beat at home and they have too much offensive firepower for Tennessee to handle. The Falcons will win this game and cover the spread and take the Over, as well since each team will find the end zone a few times.
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