Super Bowl XLIX Picks: Free NFL Football Parlay & Handicapping Angles

Super Bowl XLIX Parlay Pick

Super Bowl XLIX is just over a week away and Vegas has been waffling all week long when it comes to determining the lines for the Biggest Game on the Planet.

As of now, they have the Pats as 1 point favorites and the Total at 48 points? Interesting to say the least.

NFL Football Gambling

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How will injury, controversy and the rigors of two full weeks of media scrutiny affect the game on the field? Who wins?

And how many points will be scored? Let’s take a look.

NFL Super Bowl XLIX

Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
When: Sunday, February 1, 6:30 PM ET
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale
Broadcast: FOX
Patriots NFL Betting Odds: -1 -110 -118
Seahawks NFL Betting Odds: +1 -110 -102
NFL Over/Under Betting Odds: 48
Matchup | Preview

Let’s start with the Spread – Vegas currently has the Patriots as a 1 point favorite but that line is changing seemingly every day! The Seahawks have some injury concerns for sure – Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman were banged up against Green Bay.

The Patriots have “Inflate-Gate” that threatens to become a huge distraction for them ahead of the Title game.

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But when everything is thrown into the wash, the old adage “Defense Wins Championships” seems to be the big factor here. Seattle’s defense ranked first in points per game (15.9), first in yards per game (267.1), third in rushing yards per game (81.5) and first in passing yards per game (185.6) and they held an explosive Green Bay team down in the NFC Championship game.

It doesn’t seem to matter who the Hawks play – bet on the defense showing up and making a huge difference.

Distractions also play into my thinking here. New England will be answering questions all week long about the deflated balls in the Indianapolis game. Focus is paramount in Title games – my thinking is that the Pats will not quite have to intense focus that will be needed to best a historically good defense!

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The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in February, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Super Bowl games and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 playoff games. The Pats have played in seven Super Bowls and have covered in just one. They are also 1-9 ATS in their last nine games on grass.

Meanwhile the Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.

The Seattle Seahawks look like a team of destiny – just ask the Green Bay Packers. There seemed to be some Divine Intervention at work in the NFC Championship game. The past trends, the current on field/off field issues and most recent history favors the surprising underdog here.

Full of belief, the Seahawks should be able to conquer a team that will have controversy throwing a little doubt into their mix!

Super Bowl XLIX ATS Pick: Seattle Seahawks +1

Now for the Total that is set for 48 points. Surprisingly low considering one of the more explosive offenses in the game – one that seems to be peeking and scored 45 points in their AFC Championship game is involved. That followed a game that they scored 35 against the Ravens.

The Seahawks have scored some points as well in the playoffs – I can’t imagine the frequent commercial stops in the game will slow what could be a points fest.

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The OVER is 3-0 in the last three games between these two teams, 13-3 in Seattle’s last 16 games against AFC East opponents, and 5-1 in New England’s last six games against NFC West opponents.

Both defenses are formidable in this game but the both offenses have a knack of taking what`s given them and exploiting it for their own gain.

Expect some points in this game – maybe not in the first half. But once in a rhythm, both should have some success against one another – Bill Belichick has an extra week to prepare and the Seahawks got their bad game out of the way.

Super Bowl XLIX Total Pick: The Over – 48 points

Translation – 48 points is easily attainable here – this game has 28-24 written all over it!

Check out our Updated Super Bowl XLIX Odds.

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By DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.