Raiders vs Colts NFL Handicapping
The Indianapolis Colts surprised the NFL by compiling an 11-5 record a year ago, feasting on a soft schedule to do so. They’ll face one of the NFL’s easiest schedules again this year, getting things started in Week 1 with a matchup against an Oakland Raiders team that has had a dreadful preseason.
Oakland Raiders (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Date: Sunday, September 8, 2013
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
City: Indianapolis, Indiana
O/U Odds: 47
Spread: Indianapolis -10
Money Line: Indianapolis -410, Oakland +340
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Andrew Luck didn’t lose a step in his transition from college to the NFL, throwing for 4,374 yards and 23 touchdowns in his rookie season.
The system will change in year two with former offensive coordinator Bruce Arians taking the head coaching gig in Arizona, but there shouldn’t be much of a learning curve as the team transitions over to Pep Hamilton, who was the offensive coordinator at Stanford in 2011. The news must have been music to Coby Fleener’s ears – he caught 10 touchdowns in his final year at Stanford.
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Hamilton’s system at Stanford leaned heavily on the tight ends, but also on the running game, which likely means heavy doses of Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard against a porous Raider defense. Bradshaw could be slow out of the gates though after missing large chunks of camp and the preseason with various ailments.
Defensively, it will be more of the same from the Colts. They’ve got athletes all over the field but that usually means getting manhandled in the run game. LaRon Landry has come in to play safety and he should be able to clean up some of those messes. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Raiders said all the right things in the offseason, implementing a blocking system better suited for Darren McFadden’s talents. They’ll rely heavily on their ground game all season, especially after Matt Flynn failed to win himself a starting gig for the second year in a row.
Head coach Dennis Allen won’t make it official, but it appears former Heisman Trophy winner Terrelle Pryor will be under center to start the season.
The casual fan will look back on Pryor’s electric run in the preseason or his impressive line in a meaningless Week 17 tilt with San Diego and expect him to hit the ground running this season, but he has a lot of work to do before he can be viewed as a reliable NFL quarterback.
The Raider defense could be in for a long season. Poor drafting in recent years has resulted in a lack of talent on that side of the ball. Safety Tyvon Branch is a quality player, but he’s no miracle-worker.
Points will be harder to come by in this contest than many expect. Oakland was a punching bag in the preseason, but they have zero depth on the roster and so a lot of those scores were run up with the second and third units on the field.
Indianapolis has historically been slow out of the gate and that could be the case again this season as they work the kinks out of a new offensive system.
The under is 11-2 in the Colts’ last 13 home games.
The play: Under 47
