NFL Props Betting – Handicapping the NFL’s MVP Award Week 15
When you think about the MVP Award, you have to envision someone who has been a difference-maker on a team who is at least challenging for the playoffs. Well, we don’t know who is going to make it to the post-season, but some of the major candidates for MVP honors have literally almost picked up their teams and put them on their shoulders in the quest for a playoff spot.
So who are the best candidates, and who offers the most value?
Here are the latest odds from BetUS Sportsbook:
To Win the NFL’s MVP Award
3/1 — Clinton Portis, Washington
3/1 — Drew Brees, New Orleans
10/1 — Matt Cassel, New England
14/1 — Kurt Warner, Arizona
10/1 — Brett Favre, NY Jets
7/1 — Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
8/1 — Eli Manning, NY Giants
14/1 — Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
14/1 — Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee
14/1 — Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay
20/1 — Tony Romo, Dallas
20/1 — Michael Turner, Atlanta
40/1 — Chad Pennington, Miami
40/1 — Kerry Collins, Tennessee
Let’s examine the case for each:
CLINTON PORTIS (3/1 at BetUS) — I appreciate Portis’ numbers (1260 yards, 4.7 yards a carry) and know that he has been playing in pain. He is the bright spot in a Washington offense that has sometimes sputtered as it adjusts to the west coast attack installed by Jim Zorn. But do we really want to vote for someone spearheading an attack that has produced 6, 10, 20, 7 and 10 points in the last five weeks? And what about his 54 yards in the last two games? Does that offer a lot of strength for his argument?
DREW BREES (3/1 at BetUS) — Brees had a much better case early in the season, when he was ringing up great numbers and the Saints had hope to get into the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong; they still do, but they may have to for him to really have a better argument. In his favor, he is on his way to possibly breaking the one-season record for passing yards (4100 yards, not to mention 26 TD’s, in 13 games). And he’s navigated his way through a lot of injuries on the offensive side.
MATT CASSEL (10/1 at BetUS) — It is true that with Cassel at the helm, the Pats have managed to stay in the hunt for the playoffs. And he has had those back-to-back 400-yard games. But the way I look at it, the reason New England is in a life-and-death battle with other teams for a playoff berth is BECAUSE Cassel is the quarterback, and not his predecessor. If Tom Brady were in the saddle, they might be running away with the division. So I’m not sure that makes for a good MVP case.
KURT WARNER (14/1 at BetUS) — Well, the Cards just don’t seem to be able to run the ball. So a lot of this has come down on Warner’s shoulders. And he has fashioned himself a sizzling comeback season, with 4020 yards, 25 TD’s and a 69% accuracy rate. I certainly have no huge arguments with him, although you have to recognize that his Arizona Cardinals have coasted to a division title against three rather non-competitive NFC West foes.
BRETT FAVRE (10/1 at BetUS) — There is no dispute that Favre has contributed to instilling a more intense attitude in the Jets, who may have been a little dispirited with Chad Pennington (who hasn’t been too shabby after all) or the unaccomplished Kellen Clements at quarterback this year. And it looks like Favre may have the highest completion percentage of his career (now 68.4%). He is definitely ONE of the more valuable players. But I don’t know that I’d want to hand the MVP award to a guy with 20 TD passes and 15 interceptions.
ADRIAN PETERSON (7/1 at BetUS) — Last year, Peterson averaged 95.8 yards a game. This year he’s been better, with 108.7 yards per contest. Once again, on a team that has experienced inconsistent quarterbacking at best, Peterson, with six 100-yard games in the last eight, is keeping his team in a playoff chase. His work pretty much speaks for itself, and at these numbers he may be a bargain.
ELI MANNING (8/1 at BetUS) — Eli’s name is naturally going to be mentioned, since he is the quarterback of a team that might just be the best in football. He’s thrown only eight interceptions, and should be on track to throwing for more yards than last year. But you have to also realize that he’s benefited by having the best and deepest rushing attack in football to support him. With that kind of perspective, his argument is only so-so.
PEYTON MANNING (14/1 at BetUS) — What can be said for Peyton is that as he has regained some form, his Colts have become a real contender for the AFC title, and he’s had to do a lot of this with some banged-up receivers and a rushing attack that hasn’t, for the most part, been there. But when you compare his numbers (3225 yards, 22 TD’s, 12 INT’s) with those from previous years when he HASN’T won the award, you don;pt get all that excited.
ALBERT HAYNESWORTH (14/1 at BetUS) — As a representative of a great defense in Tennessee, Haynesworth certainly deserves a mention. But a defender needs to be exceedingly dominant to snag the award. Actually, someone like James Harrison or Troy Polamalu may have been better candidates, off a defense (Pittsburgh) that STILL hasn’t allowed 300 yards in a game.
JEFF GARCIA (14/1 at BetUS) — In the last three seasons, Garcia has thrown just nine interceptions in 824 throws. Of course, he’s a safety-first guy heading up an offense that would fit well in the Sominex arena. And he hasn’t even been the starter all year. I don’t know that the dink-and-dunk guys have much equity in the MVP argument, not when there are more dynamic candidates.
TONY ROMO (20/1 at BetUS) — Romo will make that critical mistake from time to time, as we saw last weekend. His numbers are okay (22 TD passes, 2769 yards in just ten games), but of course, his best argument is how the Dallas offense simply fell apart when he was out with his thumb injury. Yes, he’s valuable.
MICHAEL TURNER (20/1 at BetUS) — It was crucial to the success of new Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith that he establish a running game like he had in Jacksonville, which of course featured Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Well, Jerious Norwood has been a ghost for the most part, but Turner (1269 yards, 14 TD’s) has come through with flying colors, enabling Smith to take pressure off rookie QB Matt Ryan, achieve his vision and propel the Falcons to playoff contention. Turner is the guy I would vote for right now.
CHAD PENNINGTON (40/1 at BetUS) — Pennington has proven he is still useful by providing a nice veteran presence for a team that might otherwise have had to go with rookie Chad Henne. But with 12 TD passes, he really doesn’t leapfrog over other quarterbacks. If you’re going to put forward someone from the Dolphins, how about Joey Porter, who leads the league with 16.5 sacks?
KERRY COLLINS (40/1 at BetUS) — Really, the perception of Collins within the context of this team is that he is more “caretaker” than a dominant presence who has put the offense on his back and carried it, like Brees or Warner have done. Collins (11 TD passes) basically does enough to “manage” the game and keep Tennessee out of trouble so that the running game and defense can win the games.
