Week Six Gambling – Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers
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Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday Oct 17 – 1:00PM
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Broadcast: FOX
Miami (2-2) +140 vs Green Bay (3-2) -160 (odds courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Green Bay -3
Over/Under: 43.5
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)
Miami
The way New England and the Jets are playing the Dolphins can not afford too many losses this season. They may have a chance to steal one this week against a Green Bay team that is scuffling and may be without its QB Aaron Rodgers. The Dolphins are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league so if they don’t have to face a Green Bay team led by Rodgers aerial assault they have a chance at pounding out a win.
Based on the yardage numbers this team should be better than it is. It is in the top half on offense but is just not scoring points, averaging only 16ppg. They had their bye last week after the ugly MNF loss to the Patriots so you have to think they have devised some new ways to punch the ball into the end zone…and I hope they are not the Wildcat which it seems the league has caught up to.
The Dolphins started the season 2-0 but are now coming off of back to back losses. They have a stretch of 6 really tough games in a row after their bye and even if Rodgers doesn’t play it is going to be difficult to beat the Packers at Lambeau. For what it is worth the Packers have beaten the Dolphins the last three times they have played, covering each time.
It is hard to measure the trend value here because those non-conference games take us all the way back to 2001. 
Green Bay
The Packers have to be disappointed to be only 3-2 at this point in the season. Having watched most of their two losses they could easily be 5-0 and in the cat bird seat in the NFC. Now they face the Dolphins off a demoralizing loss wondering whether their field general will be healthy enough to get them back on track. Until we know for sure this game is tough to predict.
With Rodgers’ status questionable it would be great if the Packers could turn to the ground game but without Ryan Grant that aspect of the offense is a bit unpredictable. Further hampering Green Bay is another injury on offense to TE Jermichael Finley. Finley may not be a household name yet but he is a top 10, maybe even top 5 TE who is a vital cog in their passing offense. Even if Rodgers is back his absence will be felt.
This is a really important game on the schedule for Green Bay. Whether Rodgers plays or not they need a win because after this week they are going to be harder to come by for the next month or so. A lot of people thought the Packers were Super Bowl material and they still might be when they get back to being healthy. All the concern has been for Rodgers but nearly equally important is LB Clay Matthews. Without his relentless pressure the defense is not nearly as imposing.
The Pick: Other than being at home there is not much to like for the Packers this week. Still I don’t like the makeup of the Dolphins and their play thus far this season has been nothing special. The Packers should be able to gut out a win but it might not be pretty
NFL Gambling Trends
Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Dolphins are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 6.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Score Prediction: Green Bay 21 – Miami 18
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