NFL Football Previews – Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers
After falling flat in losses to Baltimore and Houston early this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers got back on track with a statement win over Tennessee last week. Ben Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes as the Steelers romped 38-17 over a hyped Titans team.
NFL Week 4: Jaguars vs Steelers
Date: Sunday, October 16, 2011
Venue: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: CBS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Jaguars +475, Steelers -605
Spread: Steelers -13
Over/Under: 40
This week, bettors aren’t wondering whether or not Pittsburgh beats Jacksonville. It’s just a question of by how much – and if the Steelers can cover the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
The Jags limp into Pittsburgh having lost four straight, During that stretch, they’ve been outscored 101-43. That’s an average margin of 25-10. Though they gave Cincinnati somewhat of a scare last week, they haven’t contended in games much at all this season.
It’s not fair to call Blaine Gabbert the problem per se but Jacksonville’s passing game clearly is the problem. It ranks dead last in the NFL, averaging a pathetic 150 yards per game. Gabbert has a long way to go before we can call him a competent pro quarterback but the struggles aren’t entirely his fault. He has perhaps the league’s worst receiving corps at his disposal and the Jags aren’t protecting him too well, allowing six sacks over his last two starts.
The Steelers’ secondary has been beatable at times over the last two seasons but Gabbert doesn’t have the tools continue that trend. He should face a ton of pressure on Sunday. Jacksonville’s only hope is to hand the rock off to Maurice Jones-Drew, who hasn’t been half bad this season, and hope he penetrates an overrated Steelers run defense early, before the Jags fall behind and have to pass. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
Last week’s win over Tennessee told us that Pittsburgh isn’t ready to be a team in decline just yet. The Steelers have quietly won three of four and boast the league’s No. 2 defense (tops against the pass). It was especially encouraging to see Big Ben flourish against a Titans “D” that had played very well entering Week 5. With Rashard Mendenhall (hamstring) likely returning to the backfield this week, the Steelers should field a balanced attack.
The sledding may not be as easy as some people expect for Pittsburgh this week, however. Jacksonville has quietly fielded a solid defense, ranking 10th against the run and the pass.
The pick:
The 13-point spread is a bit scary considering that the Jags’ “D” has looked solid and that good defenses have forced Big Ben into mistakes on and off this year. But we have to factor Pittsburgh’s “D” into the spread, too. The matchup is so scary for Gabbert that I almost expect the Steelers to score a defensive touchdown on a pick-six or scoop-and-score. I thus think Pittsburgh can win big at home.
Also, remember that the Jags have wilted recently when expected to get pummelled. They’re 2-10 over their last 12 ATS versus teams with winning records.
Steelers vs Jaguars prediction: Steelers 33, Jaguars 13
Money Line: Steelers -605
Spread: Steelers -13
Over/Under: OVER 40
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