Week 12 San Francisco vs Baltimore NFL Free Pick – Odds – Thanksgiving Day
The Harbaugh Bowl comes our way on Thanksgiving night when the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers head to Baltimore to take on the 7-3 Baltimore Ravens.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-1) vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-3)
Date/Time: Thursday, November 24, 8:20 PM ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: NFLN
49ers vs. Ravens Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Ravens -3
Moneyline: 49ers +155: Ravens -175
Over/Under: 38 ½ points
Both teams are virtual mirror images of each other heading into the game – strong defense and good running games have been the staple of these clubs this year. But there is one glaring difference between the teams – one that will make the difference on Thursday.
The San Francisco 49ers have rapidly become one of the two or three most fundamentally sound and balance teams in the NFL. They are 9-0-1 ATS this season already and hold three wins in the dreaded Eastern Time Zone over Philadelphia, Detroit and Cincinnati – no easy task for sure! Most have been waiting for an inevitable 49ers meltdown but it hasn’t materialized yet this season.
Offensively, the 49ers won dazzle you. What they will do is run the ball effectively, stop the run and limit game changing mistakes. The 49ers are 6th in the NFL in rushing (134.2 yards per game) and they own one of the best running backs in the game – Frank Gore who looks healthy and had gained 870 yards already this season. Kendall Hunter has proven to be a valuable change of pace back, one that gives the 49ers a superb tandem out of the backfield.
San Francisco won’t beat you with their passing game – they are 27th in the league with just 188.3 yards per game. However, Alex Smith did pass for a season high 267 yards and two touchdowns last week in a win over Arizona. The 49ers won’t win with the pass but won’t lose with the pass either as demonstrated by their exceptionally low 4 interceptions this season.
Defensively, nobody has been able to run of the 49ers yet this season. They are #1 in the NFL against the run and give up just 73.90 yards per game. This unit has yet to surrender a rushing score this season!
The Baltimore Ravens have been a maddening team to watch this season but their hiccups have come against the lower echelon of NFL teams – their losses were to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle. That should bode well for their impending match with one of the NFL’s elite teams, San Francisco. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Baltimore will likely have to live with the passing game this Thursday – there is a low chance of running on the 49ers. The Ravens own the 12th ranked passing game gaining 244.3 yards per game this season. Torrey Smith came back to the lineup last week and made a huge statement with 6 catches, 165 yards and a touchdown. He, Anquan Boldin, Ed Dickson and Ray Rice (as a receiver) will have to be the difference in this game. Baltimore’s 23rd ranked rushing attack will likely be stymied.
Baltimore’s defense has been typically stout this season – 7th against the pass, 3rd against the run and they are the 3rd best scoring defense in the league. There is a chance that Ray Lewis may return to this game – his injury leaves an enormous hole on this defense!
Betting Prediction: The San Francisco 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS this season but are just 6-13 SU in their last 19 games on the road. However, the Niners are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road. The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 SU in their last eight games and are 5-0 SU in their last five at home. However, the Ravens are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall.
This is a game in which throwing the ball will be the difference – advantage Baltimore! Both teams are also on a short week which usually favours the offenses – advantage Baltimore! Although I am very tempted to lean the 49ers way in this game, the Ravens should be able to get it done at home where they have been very good. Simply put, the 49ers have no answer for Torrey Smith – he will have success and he will open up the rest of the field for the Ravens offense. It`s going to be a good game but I expect a 7 point Baltimore win.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3
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