NFL Wildcard Weekend – Pittsburgh vs Denver Pick
The Pittsburgh Steelers head to the Mile High City on Sunday to take on a suddenly struggling Denver Broncos team that has already exceeded all expectations.
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at (4) Denver Broncos (8-8)
When: 4:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 8, 2012
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Broadcast: CBS
Steelers vs. Broncos Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: Steelers -9
Moneyline: Steelers -395: Broncos +325
Over/Under: 34 ½ points
The Steelers enter the game with injury issues (Big Ben and his high ankle sprain and Rashard Mendenhall’s torn ACL and now Mewelde Moore has landed on the Injury Report) while the Broncos come into having lost every bit of momentum that they had build during a 7-1 stretch during the season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are no stranger to pressure packed playoff action. Ben Roethlisberger himself has won 2 Super Bowls and the team represented the AFC last season in the NFL’s Biggest game. Offensively, Pittsburgh has transformed itself from a running team to a pass-first attack. It may be a good thing as Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season and Isaac Redman (557 Total yards and 4 TD’s) will be Pittsburgh’s feature back.
Ben Roethlisberger’s health will be a major storyline ahead of Sunday’s game. He was ineffective in Week 15; he missed Week 16 and was average at best in Week 17. He does have Mike Wallace (72 Catches 1,193 Yards 8 TD’s), an emerging Antonio Brown and Heath Miller at his disposal against a Denver pass defense that was an unflattering 18th in the NFL this season.
Chances are that Ben and the offense won’t have to do much on Sunday – the defense will certainly do its part. The Steelers were #1 against the pass, #8 against the run and they allowed the least amount of point per game this season – just 14.19. They were the #1 overall defense and have the best defensive mind in the game coordinating the show. Dick LeBeau will definitely have a plan devised for Tim Tebow and players like Troy Polamalu and James Harrison will be there to make sure that Tebow cannot pull a rabbit out of his hat. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Denver Broncos are one of a few feel-good stories in the NFL this year but a three game losing streak to end the year has taken a little luster off the team. It has been the Tim Tebow show all the way this year – 1,729 Pass Yards 12 TD’s 6 INT’s and 6 Rush TD’s. He is a 4th quarter machine – 984 Pass yards 6 TD’s 4 INT’s and 3 Rush TD’s but certainly struggled down the stretch as opposing defensive coordinators caught up to his limited skill set. Erik Decker and Demaryius Thomas will have their hands full against Pittsburgh`s top rated pass defense.
Denver`s running game will be the key in this match. Willis McGahee had an incredible season rushing for 1250 yards and five touchdowns. McGahee figured to be a huge cog for Denver but like all other aspects of the Broncos offense, he will likely find tough sledding against one of the top defensive units in the game.
That brings us to Denver`s defense – a squad that looked tremendous at times this season but faded down the stretch against Buffalo, New England and Kansas City. The Broncos were 18th against the pass, 22nd against the run and they allowed 24.38 points per game, good (or bad) for 24th in the NFL.
Betting Prediction: Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last six home playoff games, 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and 2-6-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games, and 10-2 ATS following a game which they didn’t cover. The underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings of these two.
The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games between the two sides.
Denver squeaked into the playoffs this season and got help from other AFC West teams along the way. The Steelers although not terrific down the stretch were just one win away from top spot in the uber-tough AFC North and were once again among the elite of NFL teams.
Expect the Steelers defense to dominate and to take the blueprint outlined by the Chiefs on Sunday.
Dick LeBeau is a defensive mastermind who has top tier talent to help him carry out his game plan. If the Chiefs were able to hold the Broncos to three points in a pressure packed game, imagine what the Steelers will be able to do.
The Cinderella story that is the Denver Broncos is all but over – Sunday`s game won`t be close!
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -9
