Betting Lines – NFL Futures
Sportsbooks see a ton of action over the course of the NFL season. The flood gates won’t open until Week 1, but win totals give us some insight into how oddsmakers feel about our favorite teams. They also give us a preview of which teams should offer some value in the early weeks of the season.
Here are eight win totals worthy of a closer look.
Baltimore Ravens (8.5)
Where better to start than with the defending Super Bowl champions?
Joe Flacco was due a new contract in the offseason and rather than leaving some money on the table to help fund a better supporting cast, he took all the money.
Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Anquan Boldin are all gone. None of those players was expected to play a huge role for the team this season, but their veteran leadership could have helped the team to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.
The fifth-toughest schedule in football won’t help either.
The play: Under 8.5 (+120)
Kansas City Chiefs (7)
Last season’s 2-14 record is not indicative of the talent on this roster. The team sent six players to the Pro Bowl.
The additions of Andy Reid and Alex Smith, and the fifth-easiest schedule in football point toward a quick turnaround.
I’m not loving that price, so this is a play you’re going to want to do some line shopping on.
The play: Over 7 (-145)
Miami Dolphins (7.5)
This win total opened at 6.5, but sharp money pushed it up to 7.5. I’m not buying-in.
Miami won free agency. Whether that translates into wins on the football field is another story.
Mike Wallace and Tyson Clabo headline a strong offseason haul by the Fins, but Ryan Tannehill isn’t Aaron Rodgers.
The team doesn’t have enough of a running game to compete, and will face the league’s eighth-toughest schedule.
The play: Under 7.5 (+115)
New York Jets (6.5)
The New York papers have been known to blow things out of proportion, and they help us get in at a fair number here with their fanatical coverage of the team.
The Jets have a good coach, a solid running game, and a good defense, even without Darrelle Revis.
The play: Over 6.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys (8.5)
The Cowboys used the offseason to get healthy on defense, while the departure of Rob Ryan is another point in their favor.
Jason Garrett and the offense seemed to figure something out in the second half of the 2012 season, and if that carries over into this season the Boys will be in for a big year. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The play: Over 8.5 (+135)
Minnesota Vikings (7.5)
Adrian Peterson carried the team a year ago, but his 411 touches including playoffs are a major red flag.
Christian Ponder doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter in the NFL, and the departure of Percy Harvin will make that even more evident.
The play: Under 7.5 (-110)
New York Giants (9)
The Giant offense could be in trouble. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks both began camp away from the team over contract disputes, while the team’s offensive backfield situation is cloudy with Ahmad Bradshaw out of town.
The team has gone on some epic runs of success in recent years, but they’ve been very average at times as well.
The play: Under 9 (-120)
Seattle Seahawks (10.5)
No team improved more in the offseason than Seattle. The team brought in veterans Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril, and Antoine Winfield, and also had a strong draft despite not having a first round selection.
The Seahawks are stacked on both sides of the ball, and enjoy the best home field advantage in pro football.
The league’s 11th-toughest schedule should be easy sledding for them.
The play: Over 10.5 (-110)
The number of wins an NFL team will finish with are dependent on their schedule more so than any other single factor.
Be sure to take a look at each team’s schedule before putting your money down.
