Detroit vs. Tampa Bay Week 15 Gambling Preview & Prediction

Week Fifteen Gambling – Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Lions at Buccaneers

Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
Sunday December 18 – 1:00PM
Venue: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida
Broadcast: Fox
Detroit 3-10 (-240) vs Tampa Bay 8-5 (+200) (Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Tampa Bay -5.5
Over/Under: 43.5
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)

Detroit

It wasn’t pretty but the Lions finally made good on their promise to win a close game by beating the Packers last week.  It was a pretty weak offensive performance but their 4th quarter TD lifted them to a 7-3 victory.  For maybe the first time all season the defense really came through.  They knocked out Aaron Rodgers and kept backup Matt Flynn from mounting any sort of attack in his place.

The big thing last week is that the defense let the offense stay committed to the run.  If they can get that kind of effort against TB that would be great as it takes pressure off QB Drew Stanton who is below average as an NFL signal caller.  Tampa is weak against the rush so if the Lions can move the ball on the ground and hit a big gainer to Calvin Johnson every once in a while they may be able to steal another victory.

Detroit’s last win against Tampa was back in 2007 in a QB battle between Jon Kitna and Jeff Garcia.  A lot has changed since then but there is still a little juice between these former division mates.  These teams used to compete to determine the worst team in the old NFC Central.  This year Detroit can eliminate the Bucs from playoff contention with another upset victory.

Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers escaped Washington last week with a victory after Washington couldn’t connect on a game tying extra point.  They are still in the playoff picture with three weeks to go but have to beat Detroit to remain in the hunt.  After this weak they get to host Seattle and then finish with a game against New Orleans who likely will be resting it starters.  This is a very favourable finish for Tampa.

The Tampa offense is very frustrating.  I like Josh Freeman at QB but it seems like they wait until they are behind to start moving the ball.  He has some developing targets in rookies Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn and should be able to get the looks he wants against a weak Detroit pass defense.  Tampa better be sure to keep track of rookier DT Ndomukang Suh.  He is getting better every week and if they are not careful he will ragdoll Freeman.

Tampa absolutely needs this win so I even though it is the Lions they should be very focused.  They are only 2-4 ATS at home this year and this seems like another spot where covering might be a challenge as they tend to let teams hang around instead of putting them away.  It would be nice to see a dominating performance but it seems unlikely.

The Pick: Tampa has to win but look for the Lions to cover on the road late.  They are quite pesky and the line troubles me.

NFL Gambling Trends:

Lions are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
Lions are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 15.
Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Score Prediction:  Tampa Bay 24 – Detroit 21

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