Detroit vs. Minnesota Week 3 Gambling Preview & Prediction

Week Three Gambling – Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

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Lions at Vikings Betting Matchup

Sunday September 26 – 1:00PM
Venue:  Mall of America Field – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast:  FOX
Detroit (0-2) +450 vs Minnesota (0-2) -600 (Courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Minnesota -11.5
Over/Under: 43
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)

Detroit

With Matthew Stafford watching from the sidelines the Detroit Lions did their best to hang with the Michael Vick led Eagles last week.  Their best was almost good enough as Shaun Hill and rookie Jahvid Best formed a potent combination connecting for a 75 yard TD, one of 9 receptions Best had on the day.  All in all Best had 232 total yards and three TDs, grabbing the early lead in the offensive rookie of the year race.  They may be lacking their field general but they seem to have found their most potent weapon.

Even without Stafford the Lions were able to put up 32 points against an average Philly defense.  QB Shaun Hill had good numbers for the day but threw two picks, without them the Lions might have been celebrating their first victory instead of another loss.  If Hill can cut down on the mistakes and find a way to connect more with Calvin Johnson (he only caught 4 of 11 targets) than the Lions can still present a very potent offense no matter who is slinging it.

On defense the Lions need to improve significantly if they want to have a chance.  In week 1 the Bears rolled up a ton of yards and in week 2 the Eagles did the same (although not as many as Chicago).  Through two weeks the Lions rank no better than 28th in the league in any of the defensive categories.  The amazing thing is that they are tied for the league lead in sacks with 10.  The problem is that every time they make a big play they just give it right back to the offense.  A trend that will have to stop if they want to win games.

Minnesota

Most pundits envisioned the Vikings as 1-1 after two weeks with a loss to New Orleans in the opener (correct) and a home win over the Dolphins in week 2 (wrong).  Now the Vikings are 0-2 and looking like a team that might actually have trouble beating the Lions a team they have beaten five times in a row and nine of the last ten.  Nothing looks right in Minnesota these days, even with Favre back.

Losing Sydney Rice to start the season was a huge blow but no one was expecting the offense to be as bad as it has been so far.  The Vikings have scored only 19 points in the two games they have played and went a stretch of 4 straight quarters without scoring over the two games.  Adrian Peterson has been effective and Visanthe Shiancoe is stepping up at TE but the rest of the receiving corps has been pretty ineffective.  Brett Favre has looked horrible.  He has already thrown 4 interceptions after throwing only seven all last season and while it is hard to say what the future will bring it looks like  he is done.

The Vikings may have the perfect remedy for all their woes – facing the Detroit Lions.  As mentioned earlier they have absolutely dominated them over the last 5 seasons.  They are 9-1 against Detroit during that period and only one of those wins was by single digits.  Due to large spreads they haven’t cashed as many tickets as you would like (6-2-2 ATS) but it is hard to think they won’t snag their first victory of the season.  The only thing puzzling is the spread.

The Pick: To me the spread here is a little laughable.  To cover they would have to score 12 points which is something the Vikings haven’t done yet this season.  I like the Lions to keep it close enough, they have shown they won’t quit.

Football Gambling Trends

Lions are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Lions are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Lions are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.

Score Prediction:  Minnesota 33 – Detroit 27

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