Florida NFL Showdown: Dolphins vs Jaguars
One cannot understate how big Miami’s 22-21 win against New England was last Sunday. Not only was a big win against a divisional opponent, but it put Miami right back in the thick of things in the AFC East Division. The win allowed the Dolphins to completely absolve themselves after their ugly loss to Buffalo the week before.
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But more than anything, it gave a young Dolphins team complete confidence in their own abilities, a dangerous characteristic in a playoff stretch.
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 13th
Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville – 1:00 PM ET
NFL Point Spread: Jaguars -2, O/U: 44
The 7-5 Jaguars are one of the NFL’s little surprises this season. They’re sporting a 5-1 home record, a 6-2 conference record and are holding down the AFC’s sixth seed for the playoffs. Last week they had a 17-0 lead against a potent Texans offense before winning 23-18. Not bad for a team that went 5-11 last year and was written off by many pundits before the season even began.
What The Dolphins Have To Do To Win
Miami’s running game was supposed to take a hit when Ronnie Brown went down with an ankle injury. Instead, Ricky Williams has stepped up huge. 
In three games started, Williams has broken 100+ yards twice and has four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving). However the key to winning will be through the air. Last week Chad Henne played his best game as a pro, throwing for 335 yards and two scores in the comeback win. Jacksonville owns the leagues 23rd-ranked pass defense, which means this is a good matchup for the Dolphins.
What The Jaguars Have To Do To Win
David Garrard has been a much better player at home than on the road. Out of his ten touchdowns on the year, nine of them have been in Jacksonville. And against Miami’s 24th-ranked pass defense, another couple of scores are entirely possible. Wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker had a quiet week last Sunday, but leads the team with 752 yards receiving and six touchdowns. He should have a big day against the Dolphins. Maurice Jones-Drew is harboring a knee injury, so his offense may be limited against Miami. Still, never count MJD out of anything.
Outlook & Pick
This game will be played in the air. Both quarterbacks have been playing well, and both teams have suspect pass defenses. The winner will be who can run the ball better, and who can stop the other team from doing so. Both teams have effective runners and marginal rush defenses. As far as team’s matching up well against each other, this one takes the cake for the week. So, in a tie, take the home team. Especially if the home team’s quarterback is a beast at home.
Winning Pick: Jaguars -2 & over 44
Prop Betting: Team To Score First And Score In First Six Minutes
Both teams know the other can’t stop the pass, so whoever wins the coin toss is going to exploit that weakness early and often. Only later in the game will the runners come out and start eating up the clock.
Winning Pick: Jacksonville Will Score First, Score In First Six Minutes
One reply on “Week 14 Dolphins vs. Jaguars Free Pick”
The battle of the two best teams in the state of Florida will come down to which team can effectively run the ball. I like the Dolphins chances as they have been a bit more consistent than the Jaguars this season.