2010 NFC Divisional Round Lines: Cardinals Saints Free Predictions

NFL Divisional Playoff Betting – Cardinals vs Saints Preview & Pick

Well, that was interesting. Hosting the Packers last Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals treated us to one of the most entertaining playoff games we’ll ever see: a 52-45 overtime triumph that ended up the highest-scoring game in NFL postseason history.

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The big question is whether or not the Cards have anything left in the tank for their visit to New Orleans this weekend.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

Saturday, January 16, 4:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Saints -7

Let’s start with the easy decision: pick the over. It doesn’t matter if the total is 80 points! When Kurt Warner is on, he’s as unstoppable as any quarterback in the game. It was alarmingly easy for him to drive on Green Bay’s NFC-best defense last week; without Anquan Boldin in the lineup, Warner was an unbelievable 29/33 for 379 yards and five touchdown passes. The man is absolutely locked in and will enjoy another indoor game at the Louisiana Superdome this weekend.

The Saints are known for Darren Sharper and their ball-hawk unit, which amassed 29 interceptions this season. But guess what: the Packers picked off an NFL-best 30 passes this year and that didn’t help them at all against Warner. Also, the Saints’ “D” worsened as the season progressed and allowed 235.6 passing yards per game. That ranked them 26^th, lower than any other playoff team and behind the St. Louis Rams. Arizona doesn’t run the ball too well but Chris “Beanie” Wells dramatically improved down the stretch; his yards per game improved every month from September to December, rising from 23.7 to 71.3.

Arizona will score major points on the Saints. However, if Green Bay’s excellent offense could gouge Arizona for 45 points on the road, the Saints’ No. 1 offense should have a field day at home. Sure, New Orleans seemed to lose focus down the stretch, but Drew Brees has played in big games before. He’ll be ready and he has an endless number of weapons at his disposal. He has Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey (or David Thomas) on jump balls; Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson on deep patterns; and a very underrated running game to back him up via Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. Arguably, Thomas and Bell were the primary reason for New Orleans’ vast improvement this year. Since they led the Saints to the NFL’s No. 6 rushing offense, defenses couldn’t key on Brees anymore.

Straight up, I think the Saints win this game. The Cardinals have defensive playmakers but they didn’t show smarts against the Packers; Pro Bowlers like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie regularly bit on play fakes from Aaron Rodgers. Against creative coach Sean Payton and the Saints, that should happen again. Look for Robert Meachem to have a banner day on his deep patterns.

However, since I’m not confident that the Saints will keep the Cards off the board either, I don’t think they’ll cover the seven points. Pick Arizona to beat the spread but the Saints will ride their home-field advantage to narrowly escape with a victory.

Gambling Trends:

Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona’s last 8 games
Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 7 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
New Orleans is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 5 games at home

Pick: Cardinals +7; Saints straight-up

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Shea Matthews lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national newspapers. He now applies his knowledge to sports betting and handicapping every day, and shares his winning picks with the world.