Bet on NFL Props
The good folks at Sportsbook.ag were first to market with win totals for the 2014 NFL season, and it’s these initial odds that give us a good idea of what oddsmakers think of each of the teams entering the season.
It’s initial judgements like this that can allow us to begin to search for value throughout the year, fading the public’s overreactions, and buying low on teams that the oddsmakers and public undervalue.
The Denver Broncos are not surprisingly the darling of the oddsmakers in the early going, earning the top win total at 11.5, an number greater than even the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks’ 11.
It comes as no surprise that the Broncos would have the highest total given their success in recent years, but they’ve also enjoyed one of the softest schedules in football each of the last two years.
Things will be tougher for them this season.
The New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, and San Francisco 49ers all come in with totals of 10.5. The Patriots and 49ers certainly have what it takes to eclipse those numbers, but the Green Bay Packers showed a year ago how dependent they are on one player, and that makes backing them for 16 games dangerous.
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They’ll also be playing in the NFC North, which figures to be tougher this year with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions both taking big steps forward this offseason.
The lowest totals belong to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders with 4.5 win apiece. The Jaguars appear to be heading in the right direction, even if their pace is slow.
The Raiders, on the other hand, appear to think they’re something they aren’t.
The team added Matt Schaub and Maurice Jones-Drew, which certainly doesn’t bode well for their chances in the long term, and while they definitely aren’t Super Bowl contenders this upcoming season, their foolish offseason additions could help them at least climb the 4.5-win hump.
The Houston Texans offer one of the more surprising numbers of the season at 7.5. The team was a major disappointment a year ago with only two wins, though that allowed them to add Jadeveon Clowney to the fold to form what should be a dynamic tandem with J.J. Watt.
Even still, the team’s quarterback situation is a mess, with Ryan Fitzpatrick looking like the team’s Week 1 starter.
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Arian Foster is back and healthy, for now, while Andre Johnson looks to be in for a lengthy holdout.
The Dallas Cowboys will surely be one of the more heavily played options, with a win total set at 8.
The team has brought in a new play-caller in Scott Linehan, which should lead to more passing from Tony Romo.
Whether that will be good or bad is yet to be seen.
Here’s a look at all of the NFL win total odds, courtesy Sportsbook.ag:
Arizona Cardinals
o7.5 (-150)
u7.5 (+120)
Atlanta Falcons
o8.5 (-115)
u8.5 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens
o8.5 (-145)
u8.5 (+115)
Buffalo Bills
o6.5 (-165)
u6.5 (+130)
Carolina Panthers
o8.5 (+110)
u8.5 (-140)
Chicago Bears
o8.5 (-115)
u8.5 (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals
o9 (-140)
u9 (+110)
Cleveland Browns
o6.5 (-165)
u6.5 (+130)
Dallas Cowboys
o8 (-115)
u8 (-115)
Denver Broncos
o11.5 (even)
u11.5 (-130)
Detroit Lions
o8.5 (-115)
u8.5 (-115)
Green Bay Packers
o10.5 (-115)
u10.5 (-115)
Houston Texans
o7.5 (-150)
u7.5 (+120)
Indianapolis Colts
o9.5 (+110)
u9.5 (-140)
Jacksonville Jaguars
o4.5 (-175)
u4.5 (+145)
Kansas City Chiefs
o8.5 (even)
u8.5 (-130)
Miami Dolphins
o8 (even)
u8 (-130)
Minnesota Vikings
o6 (-115)
u6 (-115)
New England Patriots
o10.5 (-160)
u10.5 (+130)
New Orleans Saints
o9.5 (-175)
u9.5 (+145)
New York Giants
o8 (-130)
u8 (even)
New York Jets
o7 (-145)
u7 (+115)
Oakland Raiders
o4.5 (-130)
u4.5 (even)
Philadelphia Eagles
o9 (even)
u9 (-130)
Pittsburgh Steelers
o8.5 (-140)
u8.5 (+110)
San Diego Chargers
o8 (-130)
u8 (even)
San Francisco 49ers
o10.5 (-140)
u10.5 (+110)
Seattle Seahawks
o11 (-130)
u11 (even)
St Louis Rams
o7.5 (-115)
u7.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
o7 (-110)
u7 (-120)
Tennessee Titans
o7 (-130)
u7 (even)
Washington Redskins
o7.5 (+110)
u7.5 (-140)
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