Handicapping The AFC East
The AFC East has belonged to the New England Patriots ever since Drew Bledsoe was knocked out of a game against the New York Jets and replaced by a young Tom Brady. Since then, the Patriots have failed to win the division only once in a span of 11 seasons from 2003 through 2013.
Following a strong offseason, the Patriots appear poised to make a run at the Super Bowl, though don’t expect their divisional counterparts to just roll over and hand them the division title.
Here’s a breakdown of the AFC East for the 2014 season.
New England Patriots
Patriots AFC East Odds: -325
AFC Conference Odds: +350
Patriots Super Bowl Odds: +850
New England Odds from Sportsbook.ag
The Patriots made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game last season despite a litany of injuries. A big reason why the team will be better this season is simply the return of some healthy bodies in Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo, and Vince Wilfork.
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Another year within Bill Belichick’s complicated offense will do wonders for the likes of Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Kenbrell Thompkins. The defense also gets a boost in the form of cornerback Darrelle Revis, who gave the Pats some much trouble during his time in New York.
Coach Belichick surely has something special planned for one of the league’s top cornerbacks.
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins AFC East Odds: +550
AFC Conference Odds: +2000
Dolphins Super Bowl Odds: +6000
Miami Odds from Sportsbook.ag
The Dolphins went all-in during free agency a year ago, and that did not go as planned for them. They bring in Knowshon Moreno to supplement an already deep cast of offensive skill players, and Ryan Tannehill appears to be shaping into a solid pro quarterback.
The team’s defense won’t win them many games. The offensive line could cost them even more.
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The makeshift unit will be without center Mike Pouncey for most of the year, and that’s going to mean Tannehill’s mobility couldn’t be the team’s greatest asset this season.
Mike Sherman will need to put extra focus on getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry, and it sounds like he’s doing just that at camp, working Mike Wallace into a Percy Harvin-type role.
New York Jets
Jets AFC East Odds: +800
AFC Conference Odds: +3000
Jets Super Bowl Odds: +7000
N.Y. Odds from Sportsbook.ag
The Jets will be just fine defensively for as long as Rex Ryan is around, that much we know. He’ll have some work to do with a secondary that’s let a lot of talent move away in recent seasons, but it’s hard to bet against Rex.
The team’s offense has been what has held it back for so many years, and the Jets got a boost on that side of the ball during the offseason.
Chris Johnson still has a lot left in the tank, and good excel behind a much better offensive line, Eric Decker’s numbers are sure to decline with Peyton Manning in his rearview mirror, but he’ll give a solid boost to a receiving corps that’s lacked a true No. 1 option. Michael Vick is said to be around to help groom Geno Smith, but it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t draw the bulk of the starts.
Buffalo Bills
Bills AFC East Odds: +1100
AFC Conference Odds: +3300
Bills Super Bowl Odds: +10000
Buffalo Odds from Sportsbook.ag
The Bills are a curious case. The Sammy Watkins trade felt like the move of a team that felt it was one piece away. They’re also keeping some veterans around that might be better fits elsewhere. EJ Manuel may be the biggest concern, as he’s looked to have some issues adding to the pro ranks.
The team’s defense was a strong point last season, but Mike Pettine’s departure won’t help, nor will the losses of Jairus Byrd (free agency) or Kiko Alonso (injury).
AFC East Gambling Prediction
The Patriots remain the class of the AFC East, improving vastly in the offseason after winning the division by four games in 2013. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them lap the competition once again this season.
With that said, the Jets have quietly gotten a fair bit better in the offseason, adding some good skill players to an offense that sorely needed them. They could be worth a small play, even if it is tough to imagine them pulling off the feat.
AFC East Handicapping Picks: New England -325, New York Jets +800
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