Categories
NFL

2011 NFL Gambling: Lines | Week 5 Matchups & Predictions

Dave Schwab weighs in on the second week of the NFL 2011 season. A brief review of the current Week 5 point spreads and NFL Week 5 over/under lines for all the games being featured in Week five…

2011 Week 5 NFL Gambling Lines: Top 3 Matchups and Predictions

The odds makers earned their keep last week as they split the favorites and the underdogs right down the middle at 8-8. The road teams had a slight advantage with 10 of 16 winning against the spread. Turning to the total line, for the first week since the start of the regular season, the results balanced out with nine games going ‘over’ and seven games staying ‘under.

After once again sifting through the lines in an effort to mine out the value, the following is a brief betting preview and prediction for my top three picks on this week’s schedule.

All odds quoted are courtesy of Bodog SportsBook

Sunday, October 9

New Orleans Saints (-6) at Carolina Panthers

New Orleans is quietly building a case to becoming Green Bay’s primary challenge to getting back to the Super Bowl. Since losing to the Packers on opening day, the Saints have reeled-off three straight wins that easily covered the spread. They are ranked second overall on offense and 15th overall on defense.

Carolina has to be considered the most exciting 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) team in the league. Behind rookie quarterback Cam Newton, the Panthers now have the third-ranked offense in the NFL after finishing the 2010 season ranked dead-last. The problem is their defense is giving up an average of 25.5 points a game which is ranked 25th in the NFL.

The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Carolina and the favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. With the line at six points, stick with New Orleans to win and cover in a game that remains tighter than expected.

The Pick: New Orleans 28      Carolina 21

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

Oakland’s 31-19 loss to New England as a six-point home underdog last week dropped its record to 2-2 SU on the year, but it was its first loss ATS. The Raiders covered with the 3.5 points in a loss to Buffalo and covered as three-point underdogs in straight-up wins over Denver and the N.Y. Jets.

Houston has jumped out of the gate to a 3-1 start both SU and ATS. The biggest difference between this year’s team and the ones in the past is a defense that is finally learning how to finish games. The Texans are ranked fourth in the league in points allowed and 10th overall. A key loss for the offense in this game is All-Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson, who is listed as doubtful with a strained hamstring. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Raiders are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Stick with Oakland to keep things close enough to cover with the six points.

The Pick: Houston 28    Oakland 23

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)

New York lost for the second week in-a-row in a sloppy 37-14 rout at the hands of Baltimore as a five-point road underdog. The setback left the Jets 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) on the year and in danger of slipping two games in back of the lead in the AFC East with a third straight loss this week.

New England bounced back from a bad loss of its own with a solid 31-19 victory over Oakland as a six-point road favorite last Sunday to go 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) on the year. The Patriots are averaging an amazing 507.5 yards of total offense a game, but their defense is doing a good job of balancing things out by giving-up a league-worst 477.5 yards per game.

The Jets are 4-2 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings between the two and the road team in this series is 18-7-1 ATS over the last 26 games. New York will have a difficult time getting out of Foxborough with an outright win, but count on Rex Ryan having his team ready to play this week.

The Pick: New England 31      New York 24

CHECK OUT OUR NFL football betting forums today! Join us today and make NFL football picks against the spread for all NFL Football matchups!

The 2011 NFL Gambling Season is finally here. Welcome to the CappersPicks.com NFL football weekly predictions pages! We KNOW you will find our FREE weekly nfl football predictions, tips, betting advice, strategies, NFL wagering articles and more to help you become the best NFL football bettor on your block!!

CLICK HERE FOR THE BEST NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ALL SEASON LONG —–>

By Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.