2009 NFL Future Odds: AFC West Lines

AFC WEST PREVIEW

The AFC West Division is expected to be a one-horse race in 2009. Furthermore, that one horse, San Diego, is a thoroughbred. Barring similar injuries woes to a year ago, the Chargers are a bona-fide Super Bowl contender. The rest of the division is a quagmire of sub-mediocrity, with the other three teams in rebuilding mode with new or relatively new Head Coaches.

That doesn’t mean they aren’t worthy of your wagering dollar, as Sportsbook.com is offering regular season wins props for all the league’s 32 teams.

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2009 PREDICTED FINISH
1) San Diego
2) Oakland
3) Denver
4) Kansas City

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

2008 Record: 9-9 SU (-6.75 ML Units), 9-9 ATS
2008 Totals (Over-Under): 8-8
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +600, AFC Title: +4000
Sportsbook.com’s Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 10 (-140) / Under 10 (+110)

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES
Over the L3 seasons, SAN DIEGO is 12-3 SU & ATS at home as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts.
SAN DIEGO is on a 6-0 SU & ATS run in December games
SAN DIEGO is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) over the L3 seasons
Over the L3 seasons, SAN DIEGO is 10-2 SU & ATS vs. good rushing teams (>130 RY)

2009 OUTLOOK
Just because you’re down, doesn’t mean you’re out. That mantra held true with the Chargers, who rebounded from a brutal 4-8 start to win their final four regular-season games and capture the AFC West Division. However, following a 23-17 wild-card round victory over Indianapolis, San Diego couldn’t maintain the momentum and folded like a deck of cards in a 35-24 loss at Pittsburgh. Defensive problems abounded for the Bolts, who lost linebacker Shawne Merriman after just one game. The lack of a consistent pass rush caused the Chargers to struggle against opposing quarterbacks, as they ranked 31st in pass defense, allowing a gaudy 247.4 yards per game. However, there are no such problems on offense for the Chargers. San Diego lit up the scoreboard to the tune of 27.4 points per game, the second-highest average in the league. And that was with running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates, two of the team’s biggest weapons, suffering nagging injuries all season long. If Gates and Tomlinson can stay healthy, there’s no stopping the Chargers. Philip Rivers has become one of the NFL’s top five quarterbacks, while the defense can only improve on last year’s poor performance. Having to play the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos twice a year can only help.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

2008 Record: 5-11 SU (-0.25 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
2008 Totals (Over-Under): 5-9
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +7500, AFC Title: +4000
Sportsbook.com’s Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 5.5 (-155) / Under 5.5 (+125)

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES
OAKLAND is 3-22 SU & 5-20 ATS on the road in its L25 December games
Over the L3 seasons, OAKLAND is 1-10 SU & ATS in non-conference games
Over the L3 seasons, OAKLAND is on a slide of 2-13 SU & 3-12 ATS vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP)
Over the L3 seasons, OAKLAND is on a slide of 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

2009 OUTLOOK
The Raiders continue to make offseason headlines. It’s between September and December where they’ve struggled over the last six years with a pitiful record of 24-72. Coming off a five-win season that saw Tom Cable replace Lane Kiffin as head coach after four games, the Raiders were their usual bold selves on draft day but not so much in the free-agent market. The big additions were rookie receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland), veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia (Buccaneers) and offensive tackle Khalif Barnes (Jaguars). Even if all the pieces fall into place it’s not likely Cable’s guys will challenge to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2002. As long as the offense grows around quarterback JaMarcus Russell, he should be ready to take the Raiders to the next level by 2010. It would come as a surprise if they challenged for a playoff spot this season, or even finish .500, but if Miami can go from 1-15 to a division champion anything has to be considered a possibility.

DENVER BRONCOS

2008 Record: 8-8 SU (-4.2 ML Units), 4-12 ATS
2008 Totals (Over-Under): 9-7
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +4000, AFC Title: +2000
Sportsbook.com’s Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 7 (+165) / Under 7 (-210)

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES
DENVER is 11-9 SU but just 3-17 ATS as a home favorite over the L3 seasons
DENVER is 9-8 SU but just 3-14 ATS vs. division opponents over the L3 seasons
DENVER is on a 0-7 SU & ATS run vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP)
Over the L2 seasons, DENVER is just 2-5 SU & 0-7 ATS when coming off a game scoring >=30 pts.

2009 OUTLOOK
It was three in a row and the old heave-ho for Mike Shanahan, as he was fired after Denver failed to make the playoffs for the third straight season. Shanahan, who had spent 14 years at the helm, saw his team lose three straight games after an 8-5 start to get edged out by the Chargers for the AFC West title. Enter Josh McDaniels, the former offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach of the Patriots. Soon after being signed to a four-year contract to become the Broncos’ head coach, McDaniels caused a major controversy, as franchise quarterback Jay Cutler caught wind of McDaniels’ desire to bring Patriots signal-caller Matt Cassel to Denver in a potential three-way trade with New England and Tampa Bay. While the trade fell apart, the breach and hard feelings could not be repaired. Cutler said he didn’t trust the coach and organization, and on April 2, the Broncos traded Cutler to the Bears for quarterback Kyle Orton, first-round picks in 2009 (Robert Ayers) and 2010, along with a third-round pick in 2009, which was traded to the Steelers. McDaniels better be ready for growing pains, especially on defense. The additions of Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill will help the secondary, but the front seven leaves a lot to be desired. The offense will be deeply affected if Brandon Marshall is out for an extended period of time. While Cutler leads the Bears to an NFC North title, Orton leads the Broncos to a distant second-place finish behind the Chargers.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2008 Record: 2-14 SU (-8.65 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
2008 Totals (Over-Under): 8-8
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +6000, AFC Title: +3000
Sportsbook.com’s Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 6 (-115) / Under 6 (-115)

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES
Over the L2 seasons, KANSAS CITY is 3-8 SU but just 9-2 ATS on the road against conference opponents
KANSAS CITY is just 1-7 SU but 7-0 ATS in its L8 games as a underdog of 10.5+ pts.
KANSAS CITY is 37-23 SU & 37-21 ATS in its L60 September games
KANSAS CITY is 4-25 SU & 8-20 ATS on the road in its L29 games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG)

2009 OUTLOOK
A new regime has taken over in Kansas City, which had the league’s youngest roster and ran out of gas late in most games. It held the lead in eight of its 14 losses. For the first time in two decades, someone other than Carl Peterson is calling the personnel shots from One Arrowhead Lane. Scott Pioli was pried away from New England and chose former Arizona offensive coordinator Todd Haley to lead the young Chiefs following the dismissal of Herm Edwards. Pioli and Haley have quite a rebuilding project on their hands and have to hope Matt Cassel, acquired from the Patriots, along with veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel for a second-round draft choice, is the long-term answer at quarterback. The Chiefs have fallen off a cliff since reaching the postseason in 2006 and can’t be expected to challenge for a playoff spot for at least another year. Questions outweigh answers on both sides of the ball by a wide margin, so Haley will be hard-pressed to match the success of last year’s rookie coaches in the league.

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