Football Betting Odds – Michigan State at Wisconsin
Michigan State Spartans (1-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Wisconsin Badgers (3-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Saturday, September 26 – Noon ET
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: WISCONSIN -3, Total 54
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
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MSU has won 10 of its last 15 games SU
MSU has lost four of its last five games SU
MSU has covered ten of its last 14 road games 
MSU has lost eight of its last 12 road games SU
MSU has played six of its last seven road games OVER the total
WISC has won six of its last seven games SU
WISC has won its last six home games SU
Also….
Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
WISC has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team
Wisconsin is a team about which, as a whole, not much will be known until this weekend’s game against Michigan State. The Badgers had life-and-death with Fresno State at home in the season’s second game, although they did show heart in going two overtimes for the win. Victories over Northern Illinois and Wofford hardly mean anything to us.
Consequently, we’re very curious about quarterback Scott Tolzien, who threw a grand total of eight passes in his collegiate career prior to this season, and is 69% accurate this season. Tolzien has averaged 9.4 yards per attempt, which is damn good. Actually, for a guy who some people suspected wouldn’t even win the starting job, he’s done just fine.
We’re not overly concerned with Wisconsin’s rushing defense, which has given up less than four yards a carry but yielded 179 yards to Ryan Matthews and Fresno, because frankly, we don’t think Michigan State is having that easy a time replacing Javon Ringer, their uber-workhorse from last season.
However, we can tell you that this is a season of “discovery” at the quarterback position for the Spartans, and what they are discovering is that Kirk Cousins is a pretty cool customer under center. Cousins, a sophomore who played extensively in only one game last season, a 45-7 loss to Ohio State, has thrown five TD passes and his only interception was that critical one that killed what could have been the game-winning drive against Notre Dame last weekend.
Wisconsin may have an edge with go-to running back John Clay, but Cousins is in possession of perhaps the three top wide receiver targets in this game, with Blair White, BJ Cunningham and Mark Dell, and this is going to cause sufficient problems for a Wisconsin secondary that intercepted middling Fresno State QB Ryan Colburn three times, but was also beaten repeatedly by him (289 yards, 4 TD’s).
The Badgers are not a team that has rewarded its supporters well over the last two-plus seasons, going 8-17 ATS in their last 25. We know the Spartans have been through the meat-grinder, with gut-wrenching losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame the last two weeks, but when you look at it, those were games against two of the better QB’s in the contry (ND’s Jimmy Clausen and CMU’s Dan LeFevour). That’s not the case here. We’re grabbing the points with Michigan State, the three-point underdog in the betUS NCAA college football betting odds.
OUR PLAY: MICHIGAN STATE +3 ***
