Thanksgiving Day College Football – #3 Texas vs. Texas A&M
Thursday, November 26 – 8 PM ET
BetUS College Football Betting Odds: TEXAS -21
In this game we’d have to attribute more “incentive” to the Texas side, since, after all, they are in a position where they are virtually assured of a spot in the BCS title game if they win their last two games – this one and the Big 12 championship against Nebraska. Texas A&M, in its second season under coach Mike Sherman, has become bowl-eligible, the result of a 38-3 win over Baylor this past weekend, to give them six wins on the year (with a 5-5-1 record in the college football sportsbook).
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Here are some of the NCAA football gambling trends as they relate to this matchup:
TEX has covered four of its last five games
TEX has won its last 15 games SU
TEX has covered four of its last five road games
TEX has played 18 of its last 25 road games OVER the total
A&M has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total
A&M has covered five of its last seven home games
Also….
TEX has won seven of the last nine meetings SU
Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
TEX is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings 
A&M is a young team, and as such, they sometimes leave themselves vulnerable to getting routed in the college football sportsbook. That’s now happened against Arkansas (47-19), Kansas State (62-14) and Oklahoma (65-10). There was a competitive effort (36-31) in a loss to an Oklahoma State team that was playing without Kendall Hunter or Dez Bryant, but in general, you would not consider the Aggies to be the kind of team that keeps things close most of the time against better teams.
That’s not to say they can’t move the football. Jerrod Johnson has performed well in Sherman’s pro-style offense, completing 59% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. A lot of youngsters have stepped up to the table, including Christine Michael, who’s gained 684 yards with eight touchdowns.
Von Miller leads the nation in sacks, with 16. Texas A&M has had its problems on defense, however, and, having allowed 259 yards a game through the air, they’ll have their hands full with Colt McCoy, who’s 73% accurate and is looking to build up some Heisman Trophy points.
Texas allows just 1.7 yards per rushing attempt, ranks seventh nationally in sacks, and has intercepted 20 passes. In short, they have a national championship-caliber defense, allowing more than 20 points only once. They’ve beaten each of their last five opponents by 27 points or more. I’m not sure the Aggies are going to have their way with a defense like this, enough to come in through the back door.
We’ll lay the points with Texas, the 21-point favorite for Thanksgiving night.
OUR PLAY: TEXAS -21 ***
