Week 7: Air Force Falcons vs San Diego State Aztecs Free College Football Pick
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Week 7: Air Force at San Diego State Preview & Pick
Air Force has climbed to No. 23 in the polls, but the Falcons are worried about a San Diego State team that could easily be undefeated. The Mountain West rivals go head-to-head on college football odds this Saturday.
Falcons vs. Aztecs
Date: Saturday, October 16, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Broadcast: N/A
Falcons vs. Aztecs lines from Bodog.com
Falcons: -1
Aztecs: +1
Total: 53.5
Bet Now @ Bodog.com
The Aztecs (3-2, 3-1 ATS) have lost two games by a combined six points this season, although last week’s 24-21 loss to BYU wasn’t as close as the score might indicate. San Diego State was outgained in yardage and crushed in time of possession. The defense has played pretty effectively this season, particularly against the pass—though that won’t be a big issue against Air Force. The Aztecs have been vulnerable on the ground, however, to the tune of 133 yards per game. BYU did a marvelous job exploiting that weak spot last week, racking up 271 yards in the Cougars victory.
San Diego State is a pretty respectable running team in its own right—or, at least, Ronnie Hillman is a pretty respectable running back. The freshman is 12th in the country at 112 yards per game, though he had just 11 carries for 62 against BYU. Quarterback Ryan Lindley has a poor completion percentage (55.3 percent), but he’s racking up yardage quite regularly, which keeps teams from stacking the box. That will be crucial against Air Force, as the Aztecs must improve their time of possession; they had the ball for just under 15 minutes against the Cougars.
The ground attack might also be a soft spot on Air Force (5-1, 2-3 ATS). The Falcons are allowing 177 rush yards per game, and they were gouged for 285 and three touchdowns in last week’s 49-27 win over Colorado State. It gets worse. Colorado State entered the game with the nation’s worst rushing average, and the Rams produced five times their usual per game average. What’s a talented back like Hillman going to do?
The best option for Air Force is to keep the ball out of San Diego State’s hands. At 352 yards per game, the Falcons own the best rushing attack in the country. Last week, they put up another 285 yards and three scores while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The passing game will be almost a complete non-factor; Air Force threw just 10 passes against Colorado State.
Sure, San Diego State could be 5-0. But despite last week’s close score, the Aztecs were largely dominated by BYU. Air Force will undoubtedly get gashed on the ground, but it should be able to control the football long enough to stay ahead. If the Cougars were able to dominate time of possession against San Diego State, certainly the best running team in America can.
Air Force vs. SDSU Betting Trends:
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
Air Force is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego State
Air Force is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Diego State is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
San Diego State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Air Force
Air Force at San Diego State pick: Air Force -1
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Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts.
