Week 6: UNLV Rebels vs West Virginia Mountaineers Free College Football Pick
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Rebels vs. Mountaineers
Date: Saturday, October 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, WV
Broadcast: ESPN3.com
Rebels vs. Mountaineers lines from Bodog.com
Mountaineers: –27.5
Rebels: +27.5
Total: N/A
Bet Now @ Bodog.com
UNLV at West Virginia Preview & Pick
Both West Virginia and UNLV are hurting after recent losses, but the Rebels are actually hurting for real—they’ve been devastated by injuries. As such, they probably don’t have much of a chance on Saturday.
West Virginia (3-1, 2-1 ATS) had a bye last week, giving it some time to lick its wounds after a 20-14 loss to No. 15 LSU. The Mountaineers buried themselves early, falling behind 17-0 midway through the second quarter. Perhaps the rest will do them some good; the offense has been nowhere near what the team expected. The line isn’t player particularly well, which is slowing star running back Noel Devine, who had just 37 yards against LSU (Devine has also been banged up). Quarterback Geno Smith was worse against the Tigers, going 14-29 for just 119 yards. The Mountaineers simply have to find a way to stretch the field.
On the bright side, the Mountaineers are excelling on defense, though it struggled against the run somewhat when facing LSU; the Tigers rushed for 150 yards. West Virginia terrorized the passing game, though, holding Jordan Jefferson to just 75 yards. The Mountaineers sacked him twice and intercepted him twice. The pass rush has been excellent this year, particularly ends Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller. A better effort from special teams might have made the difference in the LSU loss, as West Virginia surrendered a 60-yard punt return for a score.
The Rebels (1-4, 3-2 ATS) have been devastated by injuries. A whopping 25 names appeared on a recent injury report; nine players have already been ruled out for Saturday, not to mention starting running back C.J. Cox and end Daniel Marko are likely to sit. Throw in banged up quarterback Omar Clayton, and it’s hard to blame UNLV for its lousy record.
Defensively, UNLV has been a disaster, allowing over 30 points per game—including last week’s 44-26 loss to Nevada. The Wolf Pack racked up 374 yards on the ground, so containing Devine will be a challenge. UNLV has been much better on defense, holding opponents to 186 yards per game, though teams often elect to hand the ball off rather than run.
The offense has hardly been better. The Rebels rank 98th in rushing at 107 yards per game; that’s only slightly worse than the passing game, which ranks 93rd at 178 yards per outing.
UNLV will be lucky to put many points on the board—if any—given the injuries and poor play of their offense. This might also be the breakthrough game the Mountaineers have been waiting for, Devine in particular. He hasn’t exploded yet, but this could be it. West Virginia will run away with it.
UNLV vs. WV Betting Trends:
UNLV is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
UNLV is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UNLV’s last 5 games on the road
UNLV is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
West Virginia is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
UNLV at West Virginia pick: West Virginia -27.5
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Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts.
