Week 12: Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Free College Football Pick
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Week 12: Air Force at UNLV Preview & Pick
Air Force is gunning for a bowl game, but will it get a stiffer challenge than expected from UNLV this week? The Rebels ended their losing streak while showing promise on both sides of the ball.
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Falcons vs. Rebels
Date: Thursday, November 18, 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast: N/A
Falcons vs. Rebels lines from Bodog.com
Falcons: -18.5
Rebels: +18.5
Total: N/A
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Air Force (7-4, 4-6 ATS) won its second straight game with a 48-23 victory over New Mexico. The Falcons’ two-game winning streak against the spread came to an end, however, as they failed to cover as a 35-point favorite.
The offense was rather impressive, especially considering starting quarterback Tim Jefferson went down with an injury. Backup Connor Dietz was excellent in relief, leading the team to 34 points in just over two quarters of action. That’s nothing new for Air Force, as Jefferson has been nicked up all year. As usual, the ground game did most of the work anyway; Air Force rushed for 373 yards and six touchdowns on 80 carries. The Falcons threw just 10 times all day. After the offense struggled during a recent three-game losing streak, its back on track now—Air Force has put up 90 points in the past two weeks.
The defense is usually solid at best, though it played quite well against New Mexico. The Lobos managed just 258 yards on the day, and two of their touchdowns came in the fourth quarter, when Air Force had the game well in hand. The Falcons must be wary of a strong rushing attack, though—they’re allowing a whopping 202 yards per game on the ground.
UNLV (2-8, 4-6 ATS) crushed Wyoming 42-16 last week, snapping a five-game losing streak. The Rebels also covered for the first time in five games despite being a four-point underdog.
The Rebels have struggled, but there are some positive signs for the future. Two true freshmen were instrumental in last week’s victory. Running back Tim Cornett racked up 70 yards and a three touchdowns on the ground, part of a 197-yard rushing effort by UNLV (and well above the team’s season average of 107). Cornett also hauled in a 12-yard touchdown pass. First-year receiver Marcus Sullivan chipped in with 183 all-purpose yards, including a 41-yard touchdown reception.
On the other side of the ball, UNLV might have put out its best effort of the year. The Rebels have been killed by the run—they’re allowing 211 rush yards per game—but they held Wyoming to just 133, and 72 of those came on the first play from scrimmage.
That said, Air Force has a much more potent ground attack than Wyoming. Regardless of who suits up at quarterback, the Falcons should have no problems racking up a huge rushing total. Air Force is back in the groove, so the good feelings at UNLV will be short lived.
Air Force at UNLV pick: Air Force -18.5
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