Tigers vs. Tar Heels Betting Free pick
Texas is the favorite in this game, but lost 3 of their last 4 games of the season and their 2 leading rushers are banged up. On the other side of the coin Cal got over their slump in the middle part of the season and ended up winning 3 of their last 4 games.
Independence Bowl
Missouri Tigers (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5)
Date: Monday December 26, 2011 5 PM EST
Venue: Independence Stadium Shreveport, LA
Betting Lines: From BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Missouri -210 / UNC +180
Spread: Missouri -5
Over/Under: 52.5
While Missouri finished off the season strong winning their last 3 games UNC lost 4 of their last 6 games. The Tigers kept on winning even though in their 3rd to last game of the season they lost RB Henry Josey, who was leading the Big 12 in rushing yards, to a season ending knee injury. The key match up in this game is Mizzou and their 11th ranked rushing attack going up against UNC and their 14th ranked run defense. NCAAF lines have Missouri as a 5-point favorite in this game with a total of 52.5.
Missouri beat Kansas 24-10 in their last game of the season and UNC beat Duke 37-21.
QB James Franklin, who passed for 2,733 yards and 20 TD, leads Missouri and he has 2 solid targets in T.J. Moe and TE Michael Egnew. While the Tar Heels are solid defending the run the same cannot be said about their pass defense, which only ranks 90th in the nation. The Mizzou offensive line must contain DE Quinton Coples, who ranks 4th among NCAA players with 24 sacks in his career.
Franklin also had 839 rushing yards with 13 TD and he and RB Kendial Lawrence (458 yards 4 TD) will be facing a great run defense of the Tar Heels, but if they can move the chains on the ground the Tigers will be sitting pretty.
The Tar Heels rank 43rd in the nation in passing yards per game and QB Bryn Renner has to avoid the turnover, as in 3 of the Tar Heels 5 losses this season he had at least 2 INT. WR Dwight Jones (79 rec 1,119 yards 11 TD) set receiving yards records for UNC this season and he will be facing a suspect Mizzou pass defense that only ranks 91st in the nation. To take some pressure off the secondary the solid Tigers’ pass rush (25 sacks), has to get to Renner in the backfield. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
RB Giovani Bernard (1,222 yards 13 TD) set the UNC freshman rushing record this season and will be facing a Mizzou run defense that ranks 43rd in the nation.
Missouri played a tougher schedule in the killer Big 12 and they won their last 2 games facing ranked teams and overall were 2-3 facing teams in the top 25 while UNC was 0-3 facing ranked teams.
Independence Bowl Betting Trends
This season both UNC and Mizzou were 6-6 ATS and each had an Over/Under record of 6-6.
North Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 non-conference games.
Missouri is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games when they are the favorite.
Jason’s Pick: Mizzou had their issues on defense this season and the injury to Josey was a big loss, but they are a better team than UNC and they will win this game and cover the 5-point spread. With the weak pass defenses each team has I think there will be a lot of points scored, so take the Over.
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