Volunteers vs Ducks NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The No. 2 Oregon Ducks have dominated their competition up to this point, taking down the Nicholls State Colonels and the Virginia Cavaliers by a combined 112 points.
Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) @ Oregon Ducks (2-0)
Saturday, Sept. 14, 3:00 PM ET @ Autzen Stadium
Moneyline: N/A
Spread: Oregon -27.5
O/U: 70
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The Tennessee Volunteers are expected to be their first real challenge of the 2013 season, but unfortunately for the Vols, we heard that same storyline back in 2010. These teams faced off three years ago in what was supposed to be the Ducks’ only real challenge outside of the Pac-12.
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The team from the Northwest took down the Volunteers 48-13, and it’ll look to do something similar in 2013.
Tennessee
If there’s one thing that first-year head coach Butch Jones must do in this matchup, it’s slow down Oregon’s tempo. The Ducks are off to their typical frantic start, as they’ve averaged 62.5 points through two games, and while the passing attack is dangerous at times, putting a halt to the ground game will be priority No. 1.
The Ducks are second in the nation when it comes to running, as they’ve posted 425 yards per game in that category. De’Anthony Thomas is the biggest threat to break free for a big gain, but quarterback Marcus Mariota has proven he can be just as explosive, as evidenced by his 235 yards on nine carries thus far. The Volunteers may not have the speed to keep up on the outside, but they certainly have the size to clog the middle. Bringing secondary tacklers will force Oregon to test the middle of the field, which is where Tennessee wants them.
Offensively, the Volunteers have been a good running team in their own right. They’ve rushed for 277.5 yards per game, which is good enough for 23rd in the nation. That running game is the reason they’ve scored 48.5 points per game, as their passing attack is just 108th in the FBS. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Running the ball is going to be key here against Oregon’s secondary, which just might be the best in the nation. However, the bigger key is using the clock effectively. Oregon can, and will score most times it takes the field, so keeping the ball out of its hands becomes the most operational strategy week in and week out for opponents.
Oregon
The Ducks have proven that they are still one of the top offenses in the country despite Chip Kelly taking his talents to the NFL. Mark Helfrich has kept the blur offense intact, and he’s done it while utilizing his star power both on the ground and through the air.
But while it’s the offense that garners the most attention for the Ducks, let’s talk for a second about the defense. Oregon’s defensive unit has allowed just 6.5 points per game up to this point. That’s largely because it played a lower-caliber opponent in Nicholls State to kick off the year, but surrendering just 10 points to Virginia, including zero second-half scores, is exactly what fans want to see.
When it comes down to it, the Ducks’ biggest competition is themselves. The size of Tennessee will bother them, but it’s going to be self-inflicted wounds that make or break this contest. Against Virginia—another team with good size—Oregon committed 11 penalties for 119 yards. That’s going to be a problem against a disciplined SEC team, and Tennessee will look to take advantage every time the Ducks slip up.
Unfortunately for the Volunteers, the Ducks also have home-field advantage in this one. Autzen Stadium hasn’t been kind to opponents throughout the years, and it won’t be once again come Saturday. Expect another Ducks win Saturday, and expect another blowout by the time the clock strikes zero.
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Oregon 48 – Tennessee 20
