Cardinal vs Ducks NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Oregon Ducks have propelled themselves into the No. 2 spot in the country following Alabama’s shocking loss last weekend, which means if they win out, they are in the BCS National Championship game.
The Stanford Cardinal is coming off a big win against the Oregon State Beavers, and they would love nothing more than to knock Oregon out of the title game, while boosting themselves one step closer to a Rose Bowl.
No. 13 Stanford Cardinal (8-2) vs No. 2 Oregon Ducks (10-0)
Saturday November 17, 2012
Autzen Stadium, EUGENE, ORE.
8:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Oregon -1500, Stanford +950 from GTBets.eu
Spread: Oregon -20.5
O/U: 64.5
Stanford Cardinal
The Stanford Cardinal have thrived off of their defense this season. They’re allowing just 17.2 points per game, which is good enough for 12th in the nation, and they have momentum coming into this week following a win over the 11th-ranked Oregon State Beavers.
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The Oregon Ducks are known for their running game, but the Cardinal allow the fewest rushing yards per game in the entire country. The Ducks have yet to face off against a run defense of Stanford’s caliber, but no matter how good the Cardinal’s defense has been this year, the unfortunate truth is that the team from California must score points—and a lot of them—if they hope to win.
Oregon’s offense is No. 1 in the country in points scored, while the Cardinal are averaging just 29.1 points per contest (63rd in the nation). Freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan made his first career start last weekend, and while he threw two interceptions, he also threw for three touchdowns.
How Hogan—and running back Stephan Taylor—play this weekend will determine whether or not Stanford can win, but the health of Oregon’s defense could very well be what determines how Stanford’s stars play. Oregon’s defense is banged up all over the field, and depending on the health of their leaders and the readiness of their freshmen, Stanford could look to take advantage. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks are coming off a performance against the California Golden Bears that saw the offense struggle in the first half. They had difficulties putting the ball in the end zone for what seemed like the first time all season, but by the time the second half rolled around, the team figured out how to score once again.
Although the Ducks have been known for their rushing game up to this point, it was freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota who led the way against the Bears. Mariota tied a school record with six touchdown tosses, and in doing so he became the nation’s leader in quarterback rating. Coming off a performance like this is a huge confidence booster for Oregon. If senior tailback Kenjon Barner struggles against the Stanford defense, the team knows they have a quarterback who is capable of making the right plays.
Oregon has dominated the series between these two teams as of late. In the last ten years, the Ducks have won nine times, and they’ve averaged 42.1 points to Stanford’s 22.8. These are two very different teams than the ones that have faced off in the past, but the end result could be just the same, as Oregon is motivated to stay in the top 2 teams in the BCS.
Home-field advantage is going to be a huge factor in this contest. The Ducks have averaged 55.5 points at Autzen Stadium this season, all while giving up just 18 points per game. Oregon should take care of business, and they should do so in grand fashion.
Trends
Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Ducks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-0 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings.
Over is 8-1 in Ducks last 9 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
O/U Pick: Over 64.5
Score Prediction: Oregon 48 – Stanford 21
