GoDaddy.com Bowl – Miami Ohio vs Middle Tennessee State Preview Free College Football Pick
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RedHawks at Blue Raiders Matchup
Thursday January 6 – 7:00PM
Venue: Ladd-Peebles Stadium – Mobile, Alabama
MTSU (6-6) vs Miami (9-4)
Moneyline: Miami -103, MTSU -117
Spread Favourite: MTSU -1
Over/Under: 48.5
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Miami
Their coach might have bailed a bit early but this is far from a lost season for Miami. They unexpectedly found themselves in the MAC championship and even more surprisingly won it, capping a season which saw them return to the land of the relevant in the conference. The Redhawks are far from elite but they have been resilient and tough enough to have lost only one game since the beginning of MAC play.
In the championship game the Redhawks got a very sharp game out of backup QB Austin Boucher, who threw for more than 300 yards. That kind of productivity is rare for this offense which is among the worst scoring teams in the nation at only 20ppg. It is amazing that they have been able to have as much success as they have with such an anemic attack. It puts a lot of pressure on their defense.
Miami and MTSU have never met and had no common opponents this season. Both teams struggled when the level of competition was at a BCS calibre but within their own conference they are more than able to hold their own. MTSU might not be the Sun Belt champs but this is a good battle to help determine which conference has more juice on the national scene, the MAC from the Midwest or the Sun Belt from the South. 
Middle Tennessee State
Not a lot went right for the Blue Raiders this year but they are still finishing off the season with another bowl appearance. They had to win their last three to qualify but have a degree of advantage over Miami given their proximity to the bowl site. It is hard to get up for these kinds of bowl games but MTSU can expect a more partisan crowd than the Redhawks.
The reason the Blue Raiders failed to meet expectations was the play of QB Dwight Dasher. A lot was expected from this dynamic playmaker before the season began but he started the season on suspension and never really settled in after he returned. He is a very gifted athlete and has shown in the past what he can do. Miami hasn’t really faced anyone like him in the MAC but if he is not on his game he can hurt as much as help his teams chances of winning.
MTSU is far from a stingy defensive team but they are much better against the pass (22nd) compared to the run (96th…almost 200 yards per game). The key for them is being able to get enough stops to force the Redhawks to throw the ball. Boucher has limited experience and his wide receivers are not the most dynamic playmakers. If MTSU can get an early lead it really plays into their hands.
The Pick: I am sure Miami is glad to be rid of coach Haywood now but I don’t think they are going to win the bowl game he helped them earn. Look for a solid performance from Dasher and the overall better athleticism of MTSU to make for a relatively easy victory.
College Football Gambling Trends
Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Redhawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Raiders are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. win.
Blue Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Score Prediction: MTSU 38 – Miami 24
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