Week 6 Free NCAAF Parlay Picks
We’re into week 6 of the college football season already and conference schedules are heating up. As always, make sure you keep coming back to Cappers Pick for free college football picks all season.
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This week I’m targeting to small favorites of under a TD. The two games are Memphis vs. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh vs. Virginia. I’m betting on the Bearcats –4 and Cavaliers –6.5 to both cover at home.
Game #1 – Memphis Tigers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
NCAA Football Point Spread: Bearcats –4
NCAA Football Over/Under: 64 Points
The Cincinnati Bearcats 2-1 (1-2 ATS) hosts the Memphis Tigers 2-2 (3-0-1 ATS) at Paul Brown Stadium. Both teams lost last week, as Cincinnati lost to OSU (50-28) and Memphis lost to Ole Miss (24-3).
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These two teams are opening up their AAC schedule this week. Memphis won the games that they were expected to win (Austin Peay & Middle Tennessee) and lost to two ranked teams (UCLA & Ole Miss).
The Bearcats beat Toledo and Miami (OH) to open the season and lost badly last week although that was expected and I don’t think Cincinnati will let that loss on the road affect them heading into this game.
Gunner Kiel is having a great year and Cincinnati currently averages 353.0 PYPG (9th). Kiel has thrown for 1041 passing yards, 14 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He’ll have success against Memphis (227.8 PYPG – 53rd).
Running the football has been a bit of an adventure for the Bearcats (105.7 RYPG – 112th), but Memphis allows 131.5 RYPG (50th). I expect Cincinnati to run the football for over 150+ yards this week.
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The Tigers hosted the Bearcats last season and Cincinnati came away with a 34-21 win. Cincinnati threw for 329 passing yards in that game. Cincinnati isn’t a real good team, but they still have a lot of talent.
Memphis will score some points, as the Bearcats are allowing 36.0 PPG (108th). However, with Memphis being on the road in this game I expect Cincinnati to run away with this game late and cover ATS.
NCAA Football Pick: Bearcats pull away late and cover the –4 point spread.
Game #2 – Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
NCAA Football Point Spread: Virginia –6.5
NCAA Football Over/Under: 47 Points
These two teams played last year and the Panthers won 14-3 at home and covered ATS, but Virginia was horrendous last season and they’re a much better football team this year through five games.
Pittsburgh has been getting worse, as the season has progressed. They have lost two in a row against the likes of Iowa (24-20) and Akron (21-10). The loss last week to Akron has to sting for Pittsburgh.
We know what the Panthers are going to try and do in this game and that’s run (269.4 RYPG – 16th). We’ll see a healthy dose of James Connor carrying the football, but I expect him to have a bad game.
Virginia ranks 10th at stopping the run (86.6 RYPG) and the defense as a whole has improved. Virginia has only allowed 23.2 PPG (54th) and they’ve played three ranked teams (UCLA, Louisville & BYU).
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Pittsburgh does have a good defense that’s only allowing 158.4 PYPG (10th) and 106.8 RYPG (24th), but you have to consider who they’ve played. All of their opponents have been weak offensive teams.
The Cavaliers are a below offense that’s averaging 240.6 PYPG (64th) and 167.4 RYPG (70th). Matt Johns is expected to play the whole game at QB, as Greyson Lambert is banged up and questionable.
I think Johns gives them the best chance anyways, as he has been solid through the air and has 6 passing TD’s compared to Lambert’s 2 passing TD’s. With this being in Virginia, I’ll take them at home.
Virginia beat Louisville (23-21) already this season and they’re sitting with a 3-0 record at home. They’re also 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. This will be low scoring, but I still like Virginia to cover.
NCAA Football Pick: The Cavaliers play exceptional defense and cover ATS at home.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 5 Odds.
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