Week 13 Free NCAAF Parlay Picks
The college football regular season is almost in the books. This week I’m targeting two SEC underdogs to cover the point spread. Check out Cappers Picks daily for our latest free college football picks.
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I’m betting on Missouri to cover against Tennessee and Arkansas to cover against Ole Miss. Both of these games should be close and I’m happy taking the points in both of these match-ups on Saturday.
Game #1 – Missouri Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers
NCAA Football Point Spread: Tennessee –3.5
NCAA Football Over/Under: OFF
Matchup | Preview
The Missouri Tigers 8-2 (5-1 SEC) are first place in the SEC East and they’ve won four games in a row. They have a chance to win the division title if they can win out against Tennessee 5-5 (2-4 SEC) and Arkansas.
Tennessee has been out of the SEC race for a long time, but they’re playing good football right now. They beat Kentucky (50-16) last week and South Carolina (45-42) earlier this month in overtime.
The Volunteers are 0-4 against ranked opponents and that’s unlikely to change. Justin Worley is still hurt and ruled out of the game, but Joshua Dobbs has filled in admirably at the QB position thus far.
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Dobbs has thrown for 790 yards and 7 TD’s plus he has rushed for 289 yards and 4 TD’s. He already leads the team in rushing touchdowns and his dual-threat ability has caused opposing defenses trouble.
Mizzou isn’t a huge offensive threat, as the team averages 29.3 PPG (67th), 177.4 RYPG (55th) and 178.4 PYPG (109th). Maty Mauk has 19 passing TD’s this season, but he has also tossed 10 INT’s.
Tennessee isn’t much better offensively, as they’re averaging 28.6 PPG (69th), 241.8 PYPG (53rd) and 139.7 RYPG (98th). However, those numbers have gotten much better with Dobbs starting at QB.
Defensively, the Tigers allow 20.1 PPG (16th) while the Volunteers allow 24.1 PPG (47th).
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Mizzou is better on defense and this game means much more to them, so I expect them to take care of business.
NCAA Football Pick: Take the points with the Tigers on the road in Tennessee.
Game #2 – Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
NCAA Football Point Spread: Ole Miss –3
NCAA Football Over/Under: OFF
Matchup | Preview
The Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2 SEC) blew their chance to make the playoff with two straight losses against LSU and Texas A&M. Ole Miss beat Presbyterian (48-0) earlier this month, but that was a cakewalk.
It’ll be interesting to see how they come out and play on the road against Arkansas 5-5 (1-5 SEC) now that they’re out of the playoff hunt. Arkansas looked great last week and won their first SEC game over LSU.
I’m surprised the point spread is so low in this one considering Ole Miss is the better all-around team. It’s almost like the bookies are begging for Ole Miss action with this line and I feel like it’s a trap.
Arkansas has had a tough time with their SEC schedule, which was to be expected. However, this team is averaging 34.0 PPG (36th), 232.9 RYPG (22nd) and 199.9 PYPG (89th) on offense so far this season.
Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins have combined for 1818 rushing yards and 22 TD’s. Neither RB is much of a threat through the air, but both of these RB’s can grind out yards with their powerful running.
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Ole Miss actually scores slightly less than Arkansas. The Rebels are averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd), 174.4 RYPG (58th) and 272.9 PYPG (33rd). Bo Wallace has 22 TD’s through the air and 4 TD’s on the ground.
The Rebels are much tougher on defense than the Razorbacks. Arkansas is allowing 22.2 PPG (27th), but Ole Miss ranks 1st in the nation by allowing just 11.9 PPG. This will be a close low scoring match-up.
If the Razorbacks run game is able to get going on this Rebels defense they’ll be able to keep this game within striking distance and may even end up winning the game at home on a late TD.
At the very least I feel strongly about taking Arkansas at +3 points. This is likely going to be a low scoring game and the Razorbacks are still hungry, as they’re trying to become bowl eligible still.
NCAA Football Pick: Go with the points and bet the Razorbacks at home.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 13 Odds.
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