Alabama vs. Texas BCS Championship Spread + Free Pick + Score Prediction
College Football Betting Odds: Alabama -4, Total Points 45
After a full season of college football action, this is the one we’ve all been waiting for. No. 1 vs. No. 2. SEC vs. Big XII. Texas vs. Alabama for the National Championship.
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When breaking down these two teams, everyone starts with the offensive weapons, but it’s the defenses which got them here.
First for Alabama, they’re simply the best: First in scoring defense (11 points per game), second in total defense (271 yards per game) and second in run defense (just 78 yards per game). They have an extremely fast and athletic front-seven led by All-American linebacker Rolando McClain, as well as All-American defensive tackle Terrence Cody. And their defensive backs are just as good, with All-American (sensing a trend here?) Javier Arenas at cornerback and safties Justin Woodall and Mark Barron.
Here are some NCAA football betting trends which may impact this game:
Texas: 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
Texas: 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Texas: The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games
Alabama: 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
Alabama: 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
As for Texas, they aren’t too shabby themselves on the defensive side of the football, as they allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team in the game (62 per contest) and third fewest total yards (251). They are led by their own All-American, Sergio Kindle at defensive end, with Earl Thomas also starring at safety.
Looking at these two offenses, rather than just studying the stats, lets look at what each needs to do to get their team a win.
For Alabama, quarterback Greg McElroy just needs to keep doing what he’s done these past few games. Although the numbers were good overall, they were even better the last five games, as he threw for eight touchdowns and just one interception since the Tide’s bye week at the end of October. Obviously Alabama will also need to pound the football between the tackles as well, and there was hardly anyone in college football better at it than Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. Ingram rebounded from a disastrous game against Auburn to lead Alabama against Florida in the SEC Championship game. He finished with 113 yards receiving and 76 yards rushing, outscoring Florida himself with three touchdowns.
Finally for Texas on offense, Colt McCoy needs time to throw. He’s got great receivers (Malcolm Williams, Jordan Shipley), but against Nebraska was rushed and hurried so often that he didn’t even have time to think. We know Alabama won’t let Texas run the ball much, so the pressure is on McCoy’s shoulders. He cannot throw three interceptions like he did against Nebraska.
At the end of it all, I give the slight edge to Alabama, and here’s why: They simply have the most dominating front-seven in college football. Look at the Florida game, they all but took away Tim Tebow as a runner and made him beat them through the air. Because of those guys up front, it will allow their defensive backs more time in coverage, and I expect them to make a few more plays than the Longhorns.
Texas just hasn’t seen a defense this good all year. And because of it, I expect Alabama to cover the college football bettings, and win the 2010 BCS National Championship game. If you don’t believe me, Tim Brown is saying the same thing.
MY Pick: Alabama -4
