OSU vs Baylor Gambling?
It is going to be interesting to see just how much Oklahoma State has left in the tank for this one. They lost a heartbreaker last week at Oklahoma in overtime and now are on the road against Baylor, who has proven they have the ability to beat very good teams.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4) vs Baylor Bears (6-5)
Saturday December 1
Floyd Casey Stadium – Waco, TX
12:00PM
Moneyline: Oklahoma State-185, Baylor +160
Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5
O/U: 81
Oklahoma State
Usually the Bedlam game is the last one of the season but this year, with no conference title game, the Big 12 has mixed things up., I am not sure the schedule change benefits anyone.
The Cowboys defense is never great but they were even more culpable last week allowing Landry Jones to throw for an even 500 yards. They couldn’t cover anybody with three Sooners receivers topping 100 yards. Baylor also has a great passing offense so it could be another long day for the Cowboys secondary.
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On offense, QB Clint Chelf had his worst game since assuming the starting job. He will have to rebound and play well, both for this game and to be considered for the top job next year.
Did you notice that total of 81.5 points, it might be the biggest of the year, which means they are expecting neither team to be playing much defense. As a result, I think you can look at it from the perspective of identifying which team you think will win and make it so they win by 7 or more. If that team is Oklahoma State then play them with confidence.
Baylor
Baylor followed their shocking upset of Kansas State with another impressive victory last week at Texas Tech. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
In both games they scored 52 points as they have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They have to be feeling pretty good now but the win last week made them bowl eligible so they don’t have as much to play for as they would have had they lost. They are catching the Cowboys at a good time though.
Lost in the hoopla was the fact that quarterback Nick Florence wasn’t all that great in the upset of K-State. The same couldn’t be said last week against the Red Raiders when he threw for nearly 400 yards. When Florence has a big day you can count on receiver Terrance Williams having a good one too. He had 175 yards last week, amazingly that is only his 4th best game of the season. Baylor has plenty of offense to make this a very fun and interesting contest.
Baylor has been killing it ATS of late, winning the last four and 5 of the last 6. In more than half of those games they were the underdog so they are used to this role. They have been a solid bet at home too with a 4-1 ATS record. Trying to guess the emotional state of teams is difficult but if you are going to take Baylor it has to be in part because you think OSU might come out a little sluggish. If they do Baylor could bury them in a hurry.
Spread Pick: Oklahoma State -4.5
O/U Pick Over
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 55 – Baylor 45
