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TCU vs. UNLV Free Week 9 Preview & Pick (Oct. 30)

On Saturday October 30th its the TCU Horned Frogs vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels. Odds have the Frogs listed as 35-point favorites. The game’s total is set at 54.5, here is a preview, free pick plus the college football betting angle.

NCAA Football Odds – Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs Nevada-Las Vegas Runnin’ Rebels Free Pick & Preview

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TCU vs UNLV

Saturday October 30 – 11:00PM
Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada
TCU (8-0) vs UNLV (1-6)
Moneyline: TCU -20000, UNLV +7500
Spread Favourite: TCU -35
Over/Under: 54.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!

TCU

The Horned Frogs are enjoying another spectacular season.  If I were a pollster I would place them ahead of Boise State and might even put them in the very top spot.  In their last 4 games they have permitted only 10 points in total with the last two against BYU and Air Force.  This team is dominating on both sides of the ball but still flying a bit below the radar because they haven’t faced a ranked foe in a while.

They will get that chance and then some against Utah next week but need to make sure they don’t have a hiccup against UNLV.  This seems very unlikely in part because of the amazing balance on TCU.  They are number one in the country on defense (both yards and points) but in the event they can’t completely shut a team down they can outscore them – they are 7th in scoring offense in the nation.

It should come as no surprise that TCU has dominated UNLV in the past.  They have met 5 times as members of the Mountain West and TCU has won everyone of them (4-1 ATS).  The closest UNLV has gotten is 15 points back in 2006. The 35 point spread matches the largest in the series.  They were favoured by the same amount last year as they marched perfectly through the regular season.

UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels are not having a very good season…but how bad can it be going to school in Sin City right?  It used to be UNLV would get some alright talent spurned by bigger programs but that appears to have dried up in recent years.  This team won 5 games a year ago but the only thing keeping it from being at the bottom of the Mountain West Conference this year is New Mexico.

UNLV, with 8 starters returning on offense from last year, should be better on that side of the ball.  They are averaging just over 18ppg which is almost a touchdown less than they did a year ago.  This is not making new coach Bobby Hauck look very good.  It is his first year in the program and they are regressing even though they have a senior QB in Omar Clayton to lean on.  Clayton has been OK nothing more.

Last year UNLV was shutout by TCU and the way the Horned Frogs are playing another shutout seems likely.  Air Force with their dominant rushing game only scored 7 points against TCU so what chance does a weak UNLV squad have.  The spread is 35 which sounds like a lot but it was 35 last year and TCU came away with a 41-0 victory to pull off the cover.  That seems likely again this Saturday.

The Pick: Even though they are 8-0 TCU is only 4-4 ATS.  This team is on a mission and UNLV is nothing more than a minor speed bump.

College Football Gambling Trends

Horned Frogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Horned Frogs are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Runnin’ Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Runnin’ Rebels are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog.
Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Score Prediction:  TCU 47 – UNLV 3

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