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Week 5: Vanderbilt vs. UConn Preview & Pick

On Saturday OCTOBER 2, 2010 its the Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Connecticut Huskies. Odds currently have the Huskies listed as 7½-point favorites, the game’s total has not been posted yet. Here is a betting preview and matchup handicapping tips…

Big East Football Previews – Vanderbilt Commodores at Connecticut Huskies

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Commodores at Huskies Matchup

Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 2   12 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Rentschler Field, Hartford, CT.
Broadcast: ESPN3.com
Commodores @ Huskies Lines by Sports Interaction
Pointspread: Huskies – 7
Over/Under: 46 ½
Bet Now @ SportsInteraction.com!

The Vanderbilt Commodores head north to Hartford, CT. this upcoming Saturday afternoon to take on the Connecticut Huskies in this SEC-Big East matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on ESPN3.com.

Vanderbilt started the 2010 season with two straight losses; a 23-21 loss to Northwestern as a three point home underdog and a 27-3 loss to No. 10 LSU as a 10 ½ point home dog. Taking their show on the road this past Saturday as an 11 ½ point underdog, the Commodores shocked the Mississippi Rebels 28-14 for their first win of the year. The total in this game stayed just ‘under’ the 43 point line.

The Commodores win over Ole’ Miss snapped a 10 game SEC losing streak dating back to the end of the 2008 season. Big plays were the name of the game as they scored on runs of 35 and 80 yards and on a 21 yard interception return. RB Warren Norman did most of the damage, rushing for 111 yards on 15 carries including the 80 yarder that gave Vanderbilt a 21-14 lead midway through the third quarter. Norman has 225 yards rushing on 33 carries this season for an average of 6.8 yards per carry. NFL Betting

Preseason optimism turned to outright concern for Connecticut after losing two of its first three games. The Huskies opened the season with a 30-10 loss to Michigan as a three point road underdog. They rebounded with a 62-3 pasting of Texas Southern, but were shocked a week later in a 30-16 loss to Temple as a 4 ½ point road favorite. Last Saturday, UConn evened its record to 2-2 with a 45-21 win over Buffalo as a 20 ½ point home favorite.

The Huskies have relied on a solid ground attack that is currently ranked 26th in the nation. Led by Jordan Todman’s  448 yards on 61 carries, Connecticut has gained a total of 851 yards on 149 attempts for an average of  213 yards per game. RB Robbie Frey is the Huskies second leading runner with 269 yards on 39 carries and all told, seven different players have run the ball so far this season for this offense.

Vanderbilt is 1-9 straight up in its last 10 games and 5-5 against the spread. The Commodores are 1-4 SU on the road in their last five games but 4-1 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of their last 10 games.

Connecticut is 6-4 both SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Huskies are 4-1 SU in their last five games at home and 3-2 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of their last 10 games, but has stayed ‘under’ in three of their last five.

The Commodores are much improved from last season’s team that only won two games, but will struggle to stop Connecticut’s powerful ground game. Vanderbilt keeps it close into the final quarter, but look for the Huskies to pull away at the end and cover the seven points.

Betting Trends:

Vanderbilt is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Vanderbilt is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt’s last 6 games
Connecticut is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Connecticut is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

The Pick: Connecticut -7

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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.