Week 4 UCF vs. K-State Preview & Pick (Sept. 25)

NCAA Football Odds – Central Florida Knights vs Kansas State Wildcats Free Pick & Preview

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UCF Knights vs Kansas St. Wildcats Matchup

Saturday September 25  – 12:30 PM
Bill Snyder Family Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
UCF (2-1) vs K-State (3-0)
Moneyline: K-State -290, UCF +240
Spread Favourite: K-State -7
Over/Under: 45.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)

Central Florida

We are still trying to get a measure on the quality of Central Florida after three games.  You can throw out the opener against South Dakota; they outplayed NC State but lost the turnover battle in losing to the Wolf Pack; then were outplayed at Buffalo but won because they won the turnover battle in that game.  Everyone knows that TOs have huge impacts on the outcomes football games and UCF is the ultimate case in point this season.

The Knights pride themselves on their defense and thus far that has been the strength of the team.  They are 14th in the nation giving up just over 260 yards per games and 19th in the nation with only 15ppg against.  They completely controlled NC State QB Russell Wilson in their loss (he was only 10 for 30) but this week will be their toughest test of the season against one of the nation’s leading rushers in Daniel Thomas.  He is second in the nation with just over 552 yards through three games.  Whichever teams wins this battle up front will likely win the game.

Due to their style of play (strong defense and running game) the Knights have fared very well as the road team over the last few seasons (9-3 ATS).  Within that stat they are a perfect 1-0 ATS against teams from the Big 12, a result of a near upset of Texas in Austin back in 2007.  Coach George O’Leary is a great motivator for these kinds of contest and gets his guys to play up to the level of competition when challenged.

K-State

Since the return of Bill Snyder to the sidelines K-State has had a nice renaissance.  They are lucky to start the season with 4 consecutive home games (including this one) and with victories over UCLA and Iowa State they have demonstrated they can beat the bad teams.  UCF will be their strongest test to date and they should be very focused on the Knights even though their next game is on the road at Nebraska (they have a bye week prior to that one).

There is no secret to what the Wildcats are going to do on offense.  Since he arrived on campus last year RB Daniel Thomas has been superb.  Last year he ran for over 1200 yards with 11TDs and thus far it looks like he might double those totals this year.  Their success in the running game takes the pressure of of QB Carson Coffman.  The senior is getting this first chance to captain the offense this year but he is more of a game manager type and after Thomas he doesn’t have the best set of weapons.

If Kansas State runs over the Knights they will win easily.  Buf if UCF can get some key stops they have a chance to hang around to try and make some late plays to grab an upset victory.  There may not be many people watching this Big 12 – Conferense USA clash but I think it will be a good chess match between experienced coaches and one of the better games of the day as it will come down to the wire.

The Pick: I really like the upset chances for UCF here and with a seven point cushion they are a strong play against the spread.  This game is a good spot to build some capital for later games on the card.

College Football Gambling Trends

Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Score Prediction:  UCF 27 – K-State 24

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