BYU Cougars vs FSU Seminoles Gambling Preview + Predictions
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Week 3: BYU vs FSU Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, September 18, 2010
Venue: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Broadcast: ESPNU
Cougars vs Seminoles NCAA Betting Lines from Betus.com
BYU: +10 (Moneyline: +310)
Florida State: -10 (Moneyline: -380)
Total: 60 points: Over -110, Under -110
Brigham Young Cougars (1-1)
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What do we make of BYU this season? The Cougars were sharp in their opener at home, beating Washington 23-17. Coach Bronco Mendenhall looked like a genius employing his two-quarterback system, as both Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps passed the ball well.
But the house of cards came crashing down last week on the road when Air Force pummelled the Cougars 35-14. Both Nelson and Heaps struggled – especially Heaps – and BYU’s run defense was a nightmare. The Cougars allowed an absurd 409 net rushing yards to the Falcons.
Mendenhall believes the Cougars will at least have more stability under center this week, as he’s giving the more experienced Nelson the start and not necessarily splitting his QB reps evenly this time around. But can BYU tighten its run defense against a Florida State team averaging 150 rushing yards per game?
Florida State Seminoles (1-1) [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It’s a Jekyll-and-Hyde start to 2010 for Florida State this year but, since Week 1 against Samford was a freebie, it’s the Mr. Hyde performance against Oklahoma that sounds major alarm bells.
It wasn’t even close last week; the Sooners hammered the Seminoles 47-17. Most concerning for Florida State was the play of quarterback Christian Ponder. He was totally ineffective last week, completing just 11 or 28 passes and throwing two picks with no touchdowns in the defeat. That’s a frightening effort from a guy some pundits touted as a Heisman Trophy candidate this year. If Ponder doesn’t get better in a hurry, FSU is going nowhere fast.
The pick:
While it’s true that Florida State’s secondary looked awful last week when the Seminoles let Landry Jones throw for 380 yards and four scores, I’m not sure if BYU has the weapons to exploit those holes. Their two-pronged quarterback system is still shaky and Nelson may not be prepared to thrive in what should be a hostile, hungry crowd atmosphere.
Florida State is desperate for a win – perhaps even more desperate than BYU since it’s playing at home – and a matchup against BYU could be a confidence booster. The Seminoles met BYU on the road almost a year ago to the day and routed the Cougars 54-28. They knew how to beat the Cougars, racking up 313 yards on 49 attempts.
Ponder and Ty Jones both ran wild on BYU last year and I suspect Florida State will successfully deploy the same strategy this time around. Don’t be surprised if the Seminoles rout the Cougars; after this week, the reality could sink in for BYU that this is a rebuilding season.
BYU vs Florida State Prediction: Florida State 38, BYU 20
Moneyline: Florida State -380
Spread: Florida State -10
Over/Under: UNDER 60
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