Troy vs. Arkansas State
Troy was the dominant team in the Sun Belt over the last few years. Larry Blakeney’s team isn’t dominant at all this year; in fact they are just 3-8 in 2011.
Arkansas State has been a huge surprise under first-year head coach Hugh Freeze. The Red Wolves are 7-0 in the Sun Belt, and they can wrap up the conference title with a win this weekend.
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ASU Stadium
Saturday December 3, 12:00 PM EST
NCAA Football Odds from BetOnline
Moneyline: Off
College Football Spread: Arkansas State -17.5 (-110) Troy +17.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 57
Troy’s offense has dropped off a lot this year, and that is largely because the team has virtually no running game. Corey Robinson has thrown for 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns, but Troy averages just 91 yards per game on the ground. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Trojans as well. Robinson has thrown 13 interceptions, and the team has turned the ball over in the red zone far too many times. Eric Thomas is a play maker on the outside for this team. Thomas has 56 catches and nine touchdown receptions in 2011. Troy averages just 23 points per game this year.
The Trojans defense was solid the last few years, but this season they are bad. Troy is 113th out of 120 teams in the nation in total defense. The front seven has been dominated on a weekly basis this season. Troy’s opponents are averaging 210 yards per game on the ground. Opponents have averaged 463 yards of total offense. The Trojans are giving up 33 points per game. The defense must contain Ryan Aplin if they hope to be competitive in this one.
Arkansas State was a disappointment the last couple years, but Hugh Freeze has come into Jonesboro and immediately turn this team into a league leader. It cannot be overstated just how much Freeze has done for this program in his first year. The Red Wolves are 9-2 overall this year, and they are also 9-2 ATS. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Ryan Aplin is the star quarterback for Arkansas State. He is the team’s leading rusher and the team’s leading passer. Aplin is completing 65% of his passes, and he has thrown 15 touchdowns. He also averages 4.2 yards per carry, and he has ten touchdown carries. Dwayne Frampton has had a breakout season at the wide receiver spot for Arkansas State. Frampton has caught 80 passes so far this year. Arkansas State averages 32.5 points per game.
The Red Wolves defense has been the best in the Sun Belt this season. Arkansas State is 18th in the nation in total defense. Daryl Feemster leads an opportunistic secondary with four interceptions this year.
The front seven is strong against the run. Opponents are averaging just 111 yards per game on the ground. The front four do a great job pressuring the quarterback, which allows Arkansas State to keep more men back in coverage.
The cold December weather won’t make it any easier for the offenses in this one. Arkansas State should be able to slow down the Troy offense nicely.
The number is set quite high here, and I like the under.
Free College Football Pick: Under 57
Score Prediction: Arkansas State 35 Troy 17
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