Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Gambling Preview + Predictions
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SMU Mustangs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders CFB Lines
Date/Time: 3:30 PM EST Sunday September 5, 2010 on ESPN / ESPN3
Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock Texas
SMU vs. Texas Tech Lines
MoneyLine: Texas Tech -575 / SMU +425
Spread: Texas Tech -14
Over/Under: 60.5
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This Sunday afternoon in a Lone State Stare con-conference match up Texas Tech of the Big 12 host SMU of Conference USA. It is not hard to see why the college football lines have the Red Raiders as 14-point favorites, as Tech will, once again, have a dynamic offense that will put up a ton of points.
SMU head coach June Jones has worked miracles for the Mustangs resurrecting a SMU program that was in dire straits just a couple of years ago. The Mustangs are looking to battle it out for the C-USA title and last season they won 4 of their last 5 games and crushed Nevada 45-10 in the Hawaii Bowl, which was their first bowl game since Ronald Reagan was in the White House (1984).
Last season Texas Tech won 8 games and beat Michigan State 41-31 in the Alamo Bowl. They will feature more of a running game this season and they may even play a little defense.
SMU Mustangs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview
Texas Tech and their dynamic offense will be led by returning QB Taylor Potts (3,440 yards 22 TD 13 INT last season). Potts will have many targets since the Red Raiders have pass-catching threats all over the field, but his 2 main targets are WR’s Detron Lewis (65 rec 884 yards last season) and Tramain Swindall (55 rec 694 yards last season).
The secondary of the Mustangs is decent led by FS Chris Banjo and CB Sterling Moore. Last season SMU ranked 3rd in the C-USA in takeaways. They also have a solid front line and they are important in this game, as they will have to get to Potts and not give him time in the pocket.
RB Baron Batch is the main RB for Texas Tech and he can also catch balls out of the backfield. Last season he rushed for 884 yards and in his careers in a Red Raiders’ uniform he has 108 receptions for 885 yards. If he can have a good game it gives Tech a great chance to beat SMU since the Red Raiders can control the clock and keep the run-and-shoot offense of the Mustangs on the sidelines.
The Tech offensive line was beset by injuries last season and they will be young this season, with only 2 returning starters, and pass protection is key for them in this game. They will be facing a Mustangs’ D that has a very quick and active LB corps.
Last year SMU ranked 15th in the nation in passing offense and they are led by QB Kyle Padron, who became the starter halfway through last season and threw for 1,922 yards with 10 TD and 4 INT. He may be a future star and he will be counted on to be the big gun for the Mustangs in this game.
Padron has 2 solid WR targets in the ultra-fast Aldrick Robinson (47 rec 800 yards 5 TD last season) and former QB Terrance Wilkerson (42 rec 547 yards 4 TD last season). Padron will be facing a Tech secondary that is decent, but not great at pass coverage. However, the Tech defense is very quick and will show many blitz packages and they will need to pressure Padron and if they do not he may shred their secondary.
The Mustangs feature a pass-happy offense, but if the inexperienced RB’s of Zach Line and Chris Butler can pick up some rushing yards it will keep the Red Raiders’ defense from totally focusing on containing the pass.
The Mustangs have a solid offense line that lost only one starter. They will have to deal with the quick defense of Texas Tech and give Padron protection so he has time to find his targets. One big concern for SMU in this game, and for the season, is the depth of the line. They have to stay healthy, as the 2nd unit is mostly redshirt and true freshman.
Both teams have a great passing offense, but the key in this game is if either team can play any defense. Hey, there is a reason the college football lines have the total at 60.5 points for this game. The Mustangs will be in the Red Raiders house and even though they will not win the game they will keep it close and cover the spread.
Betting Trends:
Southern Methodist is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Southern Methodist’s last 10 games on the road
Southern Methodist is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Southern Methodist is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Southern Methodist
Texas Tech is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Texas Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech’s last 5 games
SMU at Texas Tech Pick: SMU -14
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