Longhorns vs Golden Bears Betting Free pick
Texas is the favorite in this game, but lost 3 of their last 4 games of the season and their 2 leading rushers are banged up. On the other side of the coin Cal got over their slump in the middle part of the season and ended up winning 3 of their last 4 games.
Holiday Bowl
Texas Longhorns (7-5) vs. California Golden Bears (7-5)
Date: Wednesday December 28, 2011 8 PM EST
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA
Betting Lines: From BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Texas -155 / Cal +135
Spread: Texas -3
Over/Under: 47.5
NCAAF lines have Texas as a 3-point favorite in the Holiday Bowl with a total of 47.5.
Texas lost badly 48-24 to Baylor is their last game of the season while Cal looked great on offense in beating Arizona State 47-38 in their season finale.
QB Zach Maynard leads Cal and their 38th ranked passing offense and he played well in his last 2 games not getting picked off and passing for 247 yards with 1 TD in the win over ASU. Keenan Allen (89 rec 1,261 yards 6 TD) is his main target and he and the solid WR corps of the Golden Bears will be going up against the Longhorns’ pass defense that is decent ranking 46th in the nation.
Cal RB Isi Sofele had a great season and in 3 of his last 4 games rushed for at least 130 yards. It may be harder to break the 100-yard barrier in this game facing Texas and their run defense, which ranks 11th in the nation. The Longhorns must shut Sofele down and make Maynard beat them through the air.
In the middle of the season Texas lost starting QB Garrett Gilbert to a shoulder injury and since that time Case McCoy and David Ash have split time running the offense. The Longhorns WR corps is solid, but UT leans on the run more and overall their pass offense only ranks 85th in the nation. The Golden Bears rank 42nd in the nation in pass defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Texas RB duo of Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron are nursing injuries, but each is available for this game. It is key that the Longhorns, who will be facing Cal’s 36th ranked run defense, move the chains on the ground, especially since Ash and McCoy are 2 young QB’s that will not be able to carry the team.
It is pretty simple for the Golden Bears, as if they can keep Texas and their 19th ranked rushing offense from racking up a lot of rushing yards they should win this game.
Holliday Bowl Betting Trends
This season Texas is 6-6 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 5-6-1 and Cal is at 7-5 ATS with an Over/Under record of 5-7.
Cal is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game, and have an Under record of 15-6 in their last 21 games as an underdog.
Texas is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite, and have an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.
Jason’s Pick: Texas played a tougher schedule and comes from a tougher conference, but I think Cal will win this game in a minor upset and I don’t see a lot of points being scored, so take the Under as well.
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