Texas Longhorns vs Texas A&M Aggies Betting Predictions
Neither of these Big 12 teams will be playing in a BCS bowl game, but both Texas (6-4) and Texas A&M (6-5) can improve their bowl position with a win on Turkey Day.
Venue/ Stadium: Kyle Field, COLLEGE STATION, TX
Time/Date: 8 PM EST Thursday, November 24, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Texas +255 / Texas A&M -330
Spread (ATS): Texas A&M -7.5
Over/Under: 54
No. 25 Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies Preview
The Longhorns have lost 2 in a row while the Aggies snapped their 3 game losing streak with a blowout win this last Saturday. NCAAF lines have Texas A&M as 7.5-point home favorites with a total of 54.
In their last games Texas A&M lit up Kansas beating them 61-7 while Texas lost to Kansas State 17-13.
One of the main reasons that Texas A&M is the favorite is that Texas needs to run the ball to win and while they have a legit ground attack their RB’s are banged up and will be facing a Aggies’ run defense that ranks 15th in the nation.
Case McCoy will probably get the start under center in this game since David Ash threw 2 picks in the KSU game. He has a decent WR corps and if the Aggies stuff the run McCoy will have to carry the offensive load. That may not be a bad thing, as while the Aggies have a great run defense their pass defense only ranks 118th out of 120 FBS teams.
Texas RB Malcolm Brown leads the Longhorns in rushing yards and after missing a couple games he played last week, but struggled only picking up 33 yards averaging a less than stellar 3 yards per carry. He and Joe Bergeron will have to pick up some yards on the ground, especially with freshman McCoy at the helm. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Longhorns have to avoid the turnover, as they had 2 last week and even though their D only gave up 121 total yards they still lost.
The Longhorns’ offensive line must play well in this game opening up holes for the rushing offense and keeping the Aggies pass rush out of the backfield. Texas A&M has the most sacks in the nation.
The Aggies have a more well-balanced offense ranking 15th in the nation in passing yards per game and 18th in the nation in rushing yards per game. QB Ryan Tannehill has a solid WR corps and has passed for 19 TD and 6 INT in his last 6 games.
Cyrus Gray has rushed for 1,045 yards with 12 TD and Texas has a solid run defense ranking 8th in the nation and they totally stuffed the run last week against Kansas State even though they lost.
Betting Trends
So far this season the Longhorns are 5-5 ATS with an O/U record of 4-5-1 and the Aggies are only 3-8 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-4.
The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and have an Under record of 3-1-1 in their last 5 games.
The Aggies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record, and has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
The Longhorns have only covered the spread 1 time in their last 6 games against the Aggies.
Jason’s Pick: Have to go with Texas A&M here, as their offense is too good and their run defense will keep the Texas RB’s in check. Take the Over as well, as I think the Aggies may score close to 54 points themselves.
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