Wildcats vs Ducks NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Oregon Ducks and the Kansas State Wildcats will meet Jan. 3 in what might be the most highly anticipated bowl game outside of the BCS Championship. At one point it was presumed that this was going to be the national title game, but with both teams falling on the same day in November, they now find themselves facing off in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.
No. 4 UO Ducks (11-1) vs. No. 5 KSU (11-1)
January 3, 2012
University of Phoenix Stadium, GLENDALE, ARIZ.
8:30 PM ET
Moneyline: Oregon -335, Kansas State +275 GTBets.eu
Spread: Oregon -9
O/U: 75.5
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Each team knows how to put points on the board, and with two dual-threat quarterbacks leading the way, this one should get a ton of attention come game time.
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks will enter this game as the second-highest scoring team in the country. They average 50.8 points per game, and they’re led by senior tailback Kenjon Barner.
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The running back helped lead the team to 323.3 yards per game, which was good enough for third in the country, but all-purpose player DeAnthony Thomas and quarterback Marcus Mariota helped the cause with their rushing attacks.
The over/under is high on this for a bowl game, and while both coaching staffs have had a month to prepare for the other team’s offense, you have to assume a lot of points will be scored.
What makes Oregon special, though, is that they’re not one-dimensional. Their defense held opponents to just 22 points per game, they led the nation in interceptions and their point margin was in impressive 28.8 points per game in their favor.
This team has weapons all over both sides of the field, and they’ll look to win their second BCS bowl game in a row come Jan. 3
Kansas State Wildcats
The Kansas State Wildcats have a lot in common with the Oregon Ducks. Offensively, they’re a run-heavy group who scores a ton of points. They post 40.7 points per game, which is good enough for 10th in the nation, and they have the 32nd-best ground game.
They’re led by dual-threat quarterback Colin Klein, who was considered a Heisman candidate before posting just 24 points against an awful Baylor defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Defensively, Kansas State was very good against some high-caliber offenses. They held their opponents to just 21.1 points per contest, and their specialty was defending the run.
The Wildcats struggled stopping the pass, as they were just 93rd in the country in pass defense, but against an Oregon team that thrives on the ground, they’ll stick to what got them where they are today.
The difference between these two teams is that Kansas State hasn’t faced a defense of Oregon’s caliber, whereas Oregon saw what great defenses look like in 2012. You know that each coach has spent a lot of time preparing for the opposing offense, but Kansas State better hope they’re ready for a defense that is going to put pressure on Klein from all different directions.
This game looks extremely even on paper, but if Oregon proves to be the better-prepared team, they’ll earn themselves a solid victory in Glendale, Ariz.
Trends
• Ducks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Ducks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Ducks are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 non-conference games.
• Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.
O/U Pick: Over 75.5
Score Prediction: Oregon 45 – Kansas St. 35
