Saturday Is Alright For College Football
Iowa at Penn State (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
The Big Ten kicks off its conference slate this week with a full set of matchups. The highlight contest is in State College, Pennsylvania, and the ESPN Game Day Crew and ABC will be on hand for the battle of unbeatens, Iowa and Penn State. Kickoff time is set for 8:00 PM ET, and Penn State is a near double-digit favorite at Sportsbook.com. Several interesting trends suggest the game might be much closer though.
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Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling and the offensive line has started to come together. A pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and the Iowa defense holds up its end of the deal, they’ll have a chance here. Iowa is ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. However, they have yet to cover a pointspread. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Joe Pa’s club is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years. So far their defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 PPG, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense.
The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with a 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over PSU in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with an 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.
Get all the key info for this battle of Big Ten titans on Sportsbook.com’s GAME MATCHUP.
Texas Tech at Houston (9:15 PM ET, ESPN2)
If you still have the itch for more college football after a full afternoon and evening on Saturday, ESPN2 and Sportsbook.com have a treat for you, starting at 9:15 PM ET. It’s an old-fashioned Texas-style shootout between Texas Tech and Houston in what could be the most fun game of the day. Word has it the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Could be a nice game to back OVER the total of 73.5.
It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as a BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.
Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in a 34-24 defeat but pointspread cover. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.
As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be a stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With a win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the lStaast three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in the next effort. The total is a vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.
The Power Line says Texas Tech by 2. The Sportsbook.com actual line shows a pick em’. Hmmm?
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